Bank stocks are often perceived to be a harbinger of broader economic trends so BankerAdvisor wheeled around some of the big banks’ reported second quarter earnings to spot broad movements

Tea Leaves and Emerging Economic Trends

The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

United States

North America

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ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood expects that a “changing of the guard” at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission may turbocharge the economy and bring about an influx of innovation and investment in emerging technologies.  “Deregulation, defanging the SEC, FTC, and others, government spending cuts, tax cuts, and a focus on technologically enabled innovation are likely to turbocharge the US economy,” she said, in sharing a video posted by ARK Invest on X on Nov. 11. “We have more clarity now in terms of the investment landscape after the election,” 

‘Defanging the SEC’ may turbocharge US economy: Cathie Wood

Calastone, the largest global funds network, has today released groundbreaking research, revealing that tokenisation – the process of transforming asset ownership into digital tokens on a blockchain – holds the potential to unlock over $135 billion[2] in cost savings for the asset management industry. The research also identifies that fund processing costs are projected to rise by 32% over the next three years, putting firms under increasing pressure to modernise.

Calastone Research Reveals Tokenisation Could Save $135 billion for Asset Management Industry

Guernsey stock exchange now provides a facility for trading shares in privately held companies. A stock exchange based in the Channel Islands is trying to capitalise on a global drought in initial public offerings with the launch of a facility for buying and selling shares in privately held companies. But this reinvention of its role looks likely to attract stiff competition from larger rivals. The International Stock Exchange (TISE) — which has, for years, specialised in providing a listing venue for corporate debt — last year launched a unit allowing private companies to run auctions in their own shares, without the need for a broker.


TISE finds best place to capitalise on private assets

Jefferies Financial reported an over three-fold rise in fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday as the investment bank earned higher fees from deal advisory and underwriting activity remained strong. An ebullient market, falling interest rates and hopes for an easier regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration have boosted corporate sentiment toward mergers and acquisitions. Initial public offerings and debt offerings also saw a significant improvement in the second half of 2024.Global investment banking revenue surged 26% to $86.8 billion in 2024, led by North America, which recorded a 33% increase, according to data from Dealogic. Jefferies earned the seventh highest fees across banks over the same period.

Jefferies’ profit more than triples on investment banking windfall

Nearly half of bank leaders believe their institutions will buy another bank in 2025, suggesting a potential uptick in merger activity in the coming year, according to a new survey on M&A by Bank Director. Forty-three percent of bank leaders said their institutions were very or somewhat likely to buy another bank next year, up from 35% a year earlier, Bank Director reported. As for the reasons, respondents cited scale to drive technology and other investments (43%) and geographic expansion (37%) as the two most important factors driving acquisition strategies.

Bank Leaders Expect Merger Activity to Accelerate in 2025

The new research looks at the UK’s banking sector and how it compares to other G8 countries. It notes that as a result of deregulation reforms, stable interest rates, and divestment of price equity firms as funds near the five-year mark post-pandemic, 2024 could be a pivotal year for UK banking, especially from a job searcher’s point of view. Since 2022, risk and compliance has consistently been the most in-demand area in banking recruitment. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, with 4,559 vacancies representing 15 percent of all sector roles, despite a 20 percent decrease in vacancies. 

Investment Bank Vacancies Soar While Retail Banks Face Decline Reveals Morgan McKinley

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts as recent data reveals a concerning trend in the labor market, according to Citi analysts in a note Wednesday. The bank said the percentage of individuals finding "jobs hard to get" is increasing, signaling that the rise in unemployment is not merely a sign of a growing labor supply but an indication of weak hiring conditions.  Citi notes that this trend, observed in the Conference Board survey, is reminiscent of the conditions in September 2001, a period when the U.S. economy was already in recession. This situation suggests that a “hard landing” could be imminent, making further aggressive rate cuts from the Fed more likely, says the bank.

Fed may have to cut aggressively as individuals finding jobs hard to get is rising

For two long years private companies have spurned public markets, as rising interest rates dashed lofty valuations and stock prices vacillated. All this has been bad news for Wall Street. In 2021 America’s five largest investment banks together earned an average of $13bn per quarter through their dealmaking and initial-public-offering (IPO) desks. Over the next two years they managed barely half of that.

Wall Street is praying firms will start going public again

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