Futility Index

The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

Saudia Arabia No Longer Exclusively Selling Oil in US Dollars

Implications of the Expiration of the Petrodollar Agreement

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SWIFT said it is uniquely positioned to interlink the fragmented digital asset landscape with its forthcoming digital currency trials in 2025. Banks in North America, Europe and Asia are preparing to participate in trials involving digital assets by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).  SWIFT announced on Oct. 3 that it will begin digital asset trials on its network in 2025. The trials will involve experiments with transactions that include multiple digital currencies and assets.

Banks to join SWIFT digital asset trials in 2025

ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood expects that a “changing of the guard” at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission may turbocharge the economy and bring about an influx of innovation and investment in emerging technologies.  “Deregulation, defanging the SEC, FTC, and others, government spending cuts, tax cuts, and a focus on technologically enabled innovation are likely to turbocharge the US economy,” she said, in sharing a video posted by ARK Invest on X on Nov. 11. “We have more clarity now in terms of the investment landscape after the election,” 

‘Defanging the SEC’ may turbocharge US economy: Cathie Wood

Credit ratings agency Moody's unexpectedly downgraded France's rating on Friday, adding pressure on the country's new prime minister to corral divided lawmakers into backing his efforts to rein in the strained public finances. The downgrade, which came outside of Moody's regular review schedule for France, brings its rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2" with a stable outlook for future moves and puts it in line with those from rival agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch. It comes hours after President Emmanuel Macron named on Friday veteran centrist politician and early ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister this year.


Moody's hands France surprise downgrade over deteriorating finances

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Thursday she supported the recent interest rate cuts but said the December reduction should be the “final step” in the easing process.
Even with the full percentage points of cuts from September through December, there are still “upside risks to inflation,” she added. Other Fed speakers this week provided views contrary to that of Bowman, who is generally regarded as one of the committee’s more hawkish members.

Fed Governor Bowman says December interest rate cut should be the last

In recent days, multiple central bank policymakers not only have noted the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, they also have highlighted the potential impact on inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cited a number of supply chain threats that include “large tariffs and the potential for an escalating trade war.” Economists generally see tariffs as having one-time impacts on prices. However, in this case Trump is casting a wide enough net that it could generate the kind of underlying inflation the Fed fears. Federal Reserve officials take great pains not to comment on fiscal policy, but the looming threat from tariffs is forcing their hand.

Fed officials are raising concerns about the impact Trump’s tariffs could have on inflation

Calastone, the largest global funds network, has today released groundbreaking research, revealing that tokenisation – the process of transforming asset ownership into digital tokens on a blockchain – holds the potential to unlock over $135 billion[2] in cost savings for the asset management industry. The research also identifies that fund processing costs are projected to rise by 32% over the next three years, putting firms under increasing pressure to modernise.

Calastone Research Reveals Tokenisation Could Save $135 billion for Asset Management Industry

China's central bank said on Thursday it would start accepting applications from financial institutions to join a newly created funding scheme, initially worth 500 billion yuan ($70.62 billion), to aid the capital market. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said eligible securities firms, fund companies and insurers can apply to join the swap scheme, which gives them easier access to funding to buy stocks.

China kicks off 500 bln yuan swap facility to aid stock market

The Reserve Bank of India has cut its key interest rate for the first time in nearly five years, as cooling inflation has offered room to stimulate the slowing economy. The central bank forecast real GDP growth for next fiscal year at 6.7%, and inflation rate at 4.2%. The Monetary Policy Committee decided to trim the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in a livestreamed address.

India’s central bank cuts rates for the first time in nearly five years, forecasts faster growth next year

An inflation gauge in Japan that is closely watched by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) came in at a seven-month high in November, which could prompt the central bank to raise rates early next year. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy and is tracked by the BOJ, rose to 2.4% from 2.3%, its highest level since April. The core inflation rate — which strips out prices of fresh food — came in at 2.7%, up from the 2.3% seen in October and beating the 2.6% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

An inflation gauge tracked by the Bank of Japan just jumped to a seven-month high

China kept its main benchmark lending rates unchanged on Friday, as Beijing faces the challenge of bolstering economic growth while backstopping a weakening yuan. The People’s Bank of China said it would steady the one-year loan prime rate at 3.1%, with the five-year LPR at 3.6%. The 1-year LPR affects corporate and most household loans, while the 5-year LPR serves as a reference for mortgage rates. The move was expected according to a Reuters poll of 27 economists. The rate decision came on the back of a widely-expected 25-basis-points rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed also indicated it will only reduce interest rates twice in 2025, fewer than the four cuts in its September meeting’s projection.

China keeps benchmark lending rates steady as Fed signals fewer cuts ahead

Companies owned by private equity firms are landing in default more frequently than other speculative-grade borrowers, according to a report from Moody’s Ratings. Private equity-backed companies defaulted at a rate of 17% between January 2022 and August of this year, twice the rate of non-private equity-backed companies, Moody’s said in the report released Thursday. Among the 12 largest private equity sponsors — as ranked by Moody’s — the default rate was slightly lower at around 14%.  Platinum Equity had the highest number and share of defaults, out of Moody’s ranking of the 12 largest sponsors, followed by Apollo Global Management and Clearlake Capital Group. 

PE-Backed Firms Suffering Higher Default Rates, Moody’s Says

Russia’s central bank on Friday unexpectedly left its key interest rates unchanged at 21%, citing improved monetary tightness that had created the conditions to tame sky-high inflation.
Markets had widely expected the central bank to hike interest rates by another 200 basis on Friday, after taking such a step in October. Russia’s consumer price index hit 8.9% in November on an annual basis, up from 8.5% in October.

Russian central bank surprises markets by holding key rate at 21%

The Bank of Korea held its benchmark policy rate at 3% in a surprise move so as to assess changes in domestic and external economic conditions. The BOK’s decision surprised economists polled by Reuters, which were expecting a 25-basis-points cut. The BOK also said that GDP growth would “highly likely” miss its 2024 and 2025 forecasts.

Bank of Korea leaves rates unchanged in a surprise move, warns GDP growth ‘highly likely’ to miss forecasts

In the summer of 2022, a young marketing executive in London, eager to revamp her wardrobe, clicked “Pay in 4” at checkout. The process was seamless—no credit check, no hassle, and most importantly, no immediate cash outflow. Fast forward six months, she found herself juggling payments across three different BNPL providers, struggling to keep up as late fees and missed payment penalties mounted. Her story is not unique. BNPL has redefined consumer credit, offering frictionless financing at the point of sale. But beneath its convenience lies a pressing concern—are we enabling financial empowerment, or are we simply repackaging debt in a more palatable way?

The BNPL Boom: The Good, The Bad, and The Regulatory Challenge

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.8 in a preliminary February reading, down from 71.1 in the prior month and the lowest reading since July.  Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment to rise to a reading of 74 in February. The decline in sentiment was widespread, with lower readings for Republicans, Democrats and independents. Another key part of the report is the University of Michigan’s measure of inflation expectations. According to the report, Americans’ expectations for overall inflation over the next year jumped to 4.3% in February from 3.3% in the prior month. 

Consumer sentiment drops sharply in February as inflation worries soar

Chime Financial has reportedly confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in the US, according to a report by Bloomberg. The Bloomberg report, citing sources familiar with the matter, says that Chime is targeting 2025 for its public debut, but its sources add that the timing has yet to be confirmed and plans may change. Founded in 2012, Chime provides digital-first mobile banking solutions to more than 22 million users in the US, offering services such as cashback rewards, checking and high-yield savings accounts, a Visa-powered credit and debit card, earned wage access services, and more. 

US fintech Chime reportedly submits confidential filing for potential 2025 IPO

U.S. merchants who use JPMorgan to handle payments can soon add Affirm to their checkout pages, according to a release. Consumers will have access to loans ranging from 30 days to 60 months, according to Affirm. The deal follows a similar announcement from rival Klarna last month, in which the Swedish fintech said it would be available to JPMorgan’s merchants.

Affirm announces JPMorgan Chase merchants can soon offer installment loans at checkout

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key interest rate to 3.25%, in its third quarter-percentage-point reduction of the year. The move had been fully priced by markets after policymakers flagged reduced inflation risks and a weakening growth outlook.  It is the first time the ECB has reduced rates at consecutive meetings since December 2011.

European Central Bank lowers key rate to 3.25% in third cut this year: Live updates

Interest rates are coming down, but only after one of the most brutal monetary tightening periods in modern history. And they’re probably coming down too late, too little and too slowly for a lot of smaller companies and the investment funds that chucked money at them over the past few years. Private credit — basically, bilateral corporate loans made by specialist investment funds rather than banks — has been one of the hottest asset classes over the past decade. Possibly the hottest. Depending on who you believe, there’s somewhere between $2tn and $3tn of money in private credit funds.


How is private credit weathering its first big rate hiking cycle?

HPS Investment Partners could hardly be more different than its suitor, BlackRock. Whereas BlackRock, an $11.5tn powerhouse, is best known for investing clients’ funds across huge swaths of public markets, HPS has earned a windfall on targeted bets in the private lending sector. BlackRock’s more than $12bn deal for HPS earlier this month comes as the world’s biggest asset manager is seeking to compete with groups such as Blackstone and Apollo, which are already deeply entrenched in a market widely seen as one of the next major battlegrounds in finance. 



Why BlackRock is shelling out $12bn for private credit shop HPS

London-based fintech Zepz is laying off around 200 IT workers as part of a major redundancy plan, two employees impacted by the move told CNBC. Zepz confirmed to CNBC it is eliminating roles to “sustainably support the next phase of long-term strategic goals and continued growth.” As part of the cost-cutting exercise, Zepz also proposed the closure of business units in Kenya and Poland.

Fintech unicorn Zepz to lay off 20% of its global workforce, sources say

The US Senate has voted to overturn a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rule that would give the watchdog oversight of tech giants, such as Apple, Google and X, that offer digital payment apps and wallets. Voting along party lines, the Senate backed a Congressional Review Act resolution introduced by Republicans Pete Ricketts and Mike Flood. It still needs to pass in the House of Representatives. Finalised late last year, the CFPB rule is designed to ensure that the big nonbank players follow federal law just like large banks, credit unions, and others already under its supervision.

Senate votes to scrap CFPB oversight of Big Tech payment apps

The RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.10% on Tuesday, marking its first easing since November 2020, when the central bank cut its key rate to a record low in the depths of the pandemic. The central bank had held its policy rate steady at 4.35% since November 2023, following an extended period of 13 rate hikes to tame inflation at home.

Australia’s central bank cuts rates for the first time in more than four years, flags economic uncertainties

Klarna Group Plc has filed for a U.S. initial public offering at a weak moment for company debuts, though the fintech player thinks it can offer investors more than just its buy-now-pay-later products. Klarna said it was profitable in 2024, with its per-share net profit of 1 cent last year contrasting with a per-share net loss of 69 cents a share in 2023. The company said its revenue last year rose to $2.8 billion, from $2.3 billion. It ended 2024 with $3.2 billion in cash and equivalents, according to a late Friday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company did not disclose the number of shares it seeks to sell on the market nor their expected price range.

Fintech Klarna files for IPO at a weak point for public debuts

The Trump administration has exhausted its legal authority to issue new incremental debt to pay the U.S. government’s obligations — for everything from Social Security checks to military operations. It will soon run out of cash, too, though nobody knows for certain what that date will be. The so-called “x date” — the point in the calendar when the U.S. Treasury will have exhausted all its emergency cash-management strategies — could come as soon as May, and its precise date will have major implications for President Donald Trump’s tax plans and for markets.

Trump’s Treasury is running out of money fast. Why the ‘x date’ matters for markets.

Ally Financial's credit challenges have intensified over the current quarter as borrowers struggled with high inflation, the consumer lender's finance chief said on Tuesday. Shares of the company fell as much as 19.3%, set for their worst day since March 2020. Consumers have been cutting back on loans amid high interest rates, with the looming economic uncertainty also upping the chances of more loan defaults. In July and August, delinquencies and net charge-offs - that is, debts unlikely to be recovered - rose about 20 and 10 basis points, respectively, in Ally's retail auto business compared with its expectations, Chief Financial Officer Russell Hutchinson told investors at a financial conference in New York. 

Ally Financial warns of 'intensifying' credit challenges, shares slump

In a significant move to counteract international sanctions and reduce dependency on the global financial system Swift, Russia has called on BRICS nations to establish a new cross-border payments network, reported Bloomberg. This initiative is aimed at facilitating transactions in local currencies and strengthening economic ties within the bloc. The proposed network would involve a consortium of commercial banks capable of executing transactions in the respective local currencies of BRICS countries. It also suggests the establishment of direct connections between central banks to further insulate the group from external financial systems.

Russia proposes Swift alternative for cross-border payments

Mastercard introduced a new solution that will enable banks to facilitate commercial cross-border payments that are near real-time, predictable and transparent. The new Mastercard Move Commercial Payments is designed to simplify operations, optimize liquidity, reduce counterparty risk and provide end-to-end visibility for banks and their customers, the company said in a Monday (Oct. 21) press release.

Mastercard Introduces New Commercial Cross-Border Payment Solution for Banks

Five banking associations have called on the CFPB to withdraw its new regulation on overdraft fees, arguing that it is unnecessary due to recent innovations and could potentially harm consumers.The coalition, which includes the Bank Policy Institute and the American Bankers Association, cautioned that the rule would harm millions of consumers who rely on overdrafts, particularly those with limited, if any, options for meeting short-term liquidity needs.

Banking Associations Warn New Overdraft Rule Could Harm Consumers

WaFd Bank is exiting the single-family mortgage lending business, spurring an 8% reduction in the lender’s workforce, the Seattle-based bank said Thursday. The job cuts affect 174 employees, based on a headcount of 2,175 the bank reported at the end of 2024, according to quarterly financial results WaFd disclosed Thursday. The cuts also factor in the bank “right sizing other support areas,” WaFd CEO Brent Beardall said in the earnings release.

WaFd sheds 8% of staff with mortgage exit

”As a proactive measure, ICAI-FRRB may undertake a review of the financial statements of IndusInd Bank,” ICAI President Charanjot Singh Nanda told PTI on Thursday. The private sector lender, on March 10, disclosed some discrepancies in it derivatives portfolio, whcih could have an adverse impact of about 2.35% of the bank's net worth as of December 2024, as per its internal review. 

ICAI may review financial statements of IndusInd Bank amid accounting discrepancies

Americans express rising alarm over economy and job prospects as Trump’s tariffs weigh on outlook. Wall Street stocks dropped on Friday as signs of strain among American consumers added to worries the US is heading for a bout of stagflation. A batch of data added fresh evidence that consumers are growing deeply concerned about how President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs will affect the world’s largest economy, while a separate report showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose in February. 


US stocks tumble as consumer gloom raises stagflation fears

Stripe, the FinTech giant, is reportedly in talks to acquire crypto startup Bridge for $1 billion, according to sources familiar with the discussions. This potential acquisition would be the largest to date for Stripe, which was recently valued at $70 billion. However, the deal is still under discussion and subject to regulatory considerations and compensation for employees. 
Bridge, a provider of infrastructure for crypto stablecoins, has previously raised $58 million in funding and has a strong customer base that includes government departments and companies like SpaceX and Coinbase. The startup offers software that enables businesses to accept cross-border payments made with stablecoins. 

Stripe Aims for Largest Acquisition Yet with $1 Billion Deal for Bridge

Growth in the payments industry, which was once characterized by rapid expansion, is now slowing as the shift from cash to digital payments has reached its peak, according to BCG research. The BCG Global Payments Report 2024 found that revenue growth is expected to halve by 2028, with global revenues set to rise at a compound annual growth rate of just 5% to $2.3 trillion. This marks a sharp decline from the 9% growth recorded in the previous five years, which saw revenues to $1.8 trillion in 2023.

Payments Industry Growth Slows as Cash-to-Digital Shift Reaches Peak

Cross-border payments keep the world connected, fueling everything from international trade to daily transactions. However, in the rapidly developing world, traditional systems like SWIFT might find themselves outdated. They are starting to fall behind, stopped by delays, high costs, and inefficiencies. This results in less year-on-year growth. Due to inconveniences, they have gradually been replaced by blockchain, a revolutionary technology promising to shake up how money moves across borders. Think speed, transparency, security, and cost savings tools all into one—this is blockchain. Let’s dive deeper into this topic and consider why blockchain is leading this financial revolution.

Blockchain vs. SWIFT: Why Traditional Systems Can't Keep Up in the Global Economy

 Inflation in the euro area rose from 1.7% to 2% in October, flash figures showed Thursday, coming in slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast. Core inflation and services inflation were both unchanged on the previous month. Markets currently expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, with one analyst saying the latest data would end debate over whether a larger 50-basis-point cut is warranted.

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

The Bank of England aims to develop the ability to lend to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). It is doing so to address potential liquidity challenges in core financial markets that could threaten the United Kingdom’s financial stability, the bank said in a final report on its system-wide exploratory scenario exercise. This exercise explored how the U.K. financial system — including banks, insurers, pension plans, hedge funds, asset managers and central counterparties — would respond to a market shock, it said in the report. It found that while NBFIs have become more resilient in recent years, that could change over time, and those changes could be amplified by the financial system as a whole, according to the report. 

Bank of England Seeks Ability to Lend to Non-Bank Financial Institutions

India’s central bank expectedly kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% on Friday as it struggles to contain rising inflation without hurting growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
The central bank also announced a cut to banks’ cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.0% to bolster liquidity in the economy. Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank had revised India’s GDP growth outlook for fiscal year 2025 down to 6.6% — RBI had forecast 7.2% growth in October.

Asia Economy India’s central bank revises down economic growth forecast for 2025, keeps interest rate steady

The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, according to the PBOC statement. The PBOC has ramped up measures lately to avoid a sharp fall in the currency that could spark excessive volatility while stressing the importance of FX stability. The central bank had surprised the markets by shaving the major short- and long-term lending rates in July, followed by a widely-anticipated 25-basis-point cut in October.

China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged as it contends with a weakening yuan

A federal judge is ordering the Trump administration to keep the lights on at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau with an injunction that maintains the regulator’s operations and workforce — at least for now.  “The Court cannot look away or the CFPB will be dissolved and dismantled completely in approximately 30 days,” Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said in a Friday decision announcing her preliminary injunction. For consumers, the ruling means the regulator has to ensure its hotline for consumer complaints and its database stay working, according to court documents and a consumer expert. 

The CFPB was on the brink of shutdown. Here’s what a judge’s temporary stay means for borrowers and consumers.

Nearly half of bank leaders believe their institutions will buy another bank in 2025, suggesting a potential uptick in merger activity in the coming year, according to a new survey on M&A by Bank Director. Forty-three percent of bank leaders said their institutions were very or somewhat likely to buy another bank next year, up from 35% a year earlier, Bank Director reported. As for the reasons, respondents cited scale to drive technology and other investments (43%) and geographic expansion (37%) as the two most important factors driving acquisition strategies.

Bank Leaders Expect Merger Activity to Accelerate in 2025

Higher interest rates and lower consumer spending are squeezing debt-laden companies backed by private equity groups, forcing them to either restructure through bankruptcy or buy time to recover via out-of-court settlements with creditors. The stress on private equity-backed companies shows up starkest in a recent study by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which shows that a record number of 110 private equity and venture capital-backed companies filed for bankruptcy in 2024. 


‘Leveraged to the hilt’: PE-backed firms hit by wave of bankruptcies

The European Central Bank (ECB) is developing a new platform to settle transactions using distributed ledger technology (DLT) in central bank money, aiming to integrate and harmonise the European financial market for digital assets. The move is part of the ECB’s ongoing efforts to ensure that the financial sector can leverage the benefits of DLT while maintaining the stability and integrity of the monetary system. The initiative will follow a dual-track approach, with the immediate focus on developing an interoperability link with TARGET Services. These services facilitate the movement of cash, securities and collateral across Europe, playing a key role in the financial infrastructure.

European Central Bank Outlines Two-Track Approach to Enhance DLT Transaction Settlements

The People’s Bank of China kept the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, where they have been since a quarter-percentage-point cut in October. The rate decision follows the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move to hold benchmark interest rates.

China’s central bank follows U.S. Fed in keeping rates steady as tariff threats pressure yuan

Inflation has stayed within the bank’s target range since August 2024, and prompted the RBA to cut rates in February. The central bank said it was “cautious” about its outlook, pointing out that recent U.S. tariff announcements were affecting confidence globally. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday expectedly held its benchmark policy rate at 4.1%, despite having flagged earlier that inflation was declining at a faster pace than expected. The country’s inflation reading in February came in at a softer-than-expected 2.4%.

Australia central bank highlights global risks as it keeps rates steady at 4.1%

A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. Fed officials head into their two-day policy meeting Tuesday closer to their goal of low inflation, but how much they will ease interest rates remains an open question.  “The federal funds rate has been over 5%, has been there for over a year to fight inflation. That fight is won. They need to start getting out of the way,” economist Claudia Sahm said.

The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air

South Korea’s central bank lowered its key policy rate for a second straight month and said the country’s economy will grow at a slower pace than it initially anticipated. Following a policy meeting, the Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3%. The bank lowered its outlook for the country’s economic growth to 2.2% from 2.4% for this year and to 1.9% from 2.1% for 2025. The bank is taking steps to lower borrowing costs despite the lingering effects of high inflation and alarming levels of household debt, as the economy falters.

South Korea’s central bank cuts key interest rate to nurse a slower economy

In a statement Thursday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said she was “pleased” the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. would review the decision to lay off more workers. The recent FDIC firings were part of DOGE’s effort to shrink the federal bureaucracy. The FDIC is already severely understaffed, Warren has said.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren: DOGE’s FDIC firings put banking system at risk

The new research looks at the UK’s banking sector and how it compares to other G8 countries. It notes that as a result of deregulation reforms, stable interest rates, and divestment of price equity firms as funds near the five-year mark post-pandemic, 2024 could be a pivotal year for UK banking, especially from a job searcher’s point of view. Since 2022, risk and compliance has consistently been the most in-demand area in banking recruitment. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, with 4,559 vacancies representing 15 percent of all sector roles, despite a 20 percent decrease in vacancies. 

Investment Bank Vacancies Soar While Retail Banks Face Decline Reveals Morgan McKinley

Process of shedding assets and draining bank reserves could collide with dynamics related to raising the federal debt limit. Federal Reserve officials made an adjustment on Wednesday to their policy of shrinking their $6.8 trillion in asset holdings. For the past three years, the Fed has been shrinking the portfolio of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities that it accumulated during previous stimulus campaigns, including one to stabilize dysfunctional markets when the Covid-19 pandemic upended commerce in 2020. Now, it will slow down the pace of that runoff.

As Debt Ceiling Looms, the Fed Tweaks Its Portfolio Runoff

China will sharply increase funding from ultra-long treasury bonds in 2025 to spur business investment and consumer-boosting initiatives, a state planner official said on Friday, as Beijing cranks up fiscal stimulus to revitalise the faltering economy. Special treasury bonds will be used to fund large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, said Yuan Da, deputy secretary-general of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) at a press conference. "The size of ultra-long special government bond funds will be sharply increased this year to intensify and expand the implementation of the two new initiatives," Yuan said. 

China will sharply increase funding from treasury bonds to spur growth in 2025

Web3 technologies are poised to transform the world of commerce just as Web2 revolutionized access to information. The result will be a vast, open, liquid digital marketplace where all physical goods can be listed and traded seamlessly.In the early days of the internet, information was siloed within proprietary networks. Over time, the zero marginal cost of distribution, combined with consumer demand for accessibility, led to the open, searchable internet we enjoy today. Commerce, however, has been slower to evolve due to inherent complexities. Unlike information, physical assets require trust between parties, the ability to mediate disputes and reliable settlement mechanisms. 

How AI Agents and Crypto Will Revolutionize Commerce

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Visa over allegations of “monopolisation and other unlawful conduct in debit network markets in violation of Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act”. In a press release announcing the lawsuit on 24 September, the DOJ says: “Filed in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the complaint alleges that Visa illegally maintains a monopoly over debit network markets by using its dominance to thwart the growth of its existing competitors and prevent others from developing new and innovative alternatives.”

US Department of Justice files civil antitrust lawsuit against Visa

Wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, adding to a string of sticky inflation prints. Thursday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that its producer price index (PPI) — which tracks the price changes companies see — rose 3% from the year prior, up from the 2.4% in October and above the 2.6% increase economists had projected. This marked the highest year-over-year increase since February 2023. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.4%, compared to the 0.2% seen in October. 

PPI shows wholesale inflation jumped more than expected amid 'extended and bumpy journey' to Fed's target

China lashed back at President Trump’s tariffs, applying 34% levies on all imported goods from the U.S. Beijing said the levies would come into effect next Thursday, the day after a big part of Trump’s promised tariffs go live. The market selloff continued Friday, with the China retaliation and recession fears pushing investors to sell stocks and hide in the safety of government bonds.
Markets took little comfort from President Trump's willingness to negotiate over the tariffs. The levies announced late Wednesday were deeper and more aggressive than the business world expected. And even as Trump left the door open to making deals, he vowed new tariffs on drugs and microchips.

Dow Opens Sharply Lower, Bonds Rally After China Retaliates Against Trump Tariffs

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Tuesday dismissed its lawsuit against the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominate transactions on it.  The CFPB sued Early Warning Services, which runs the peer-to-peer payments network, as well as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo in December, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursement. The CFPB “dismisses this action against Defendants Early Warning Services, LLC, Bank of America, N.A., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., with prejudice,” the regulator said.

Finance CFPB drops lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo over Zelle fraud

JPMorgan believes the US economy will enter a recession in the back half of 2025 as the impact of President Trump tariffs takes hold in the economy. The firm's chief US economist Michael Feroli sees a two-quarter recession occurring in the back half of 2025 as GDP contracts by 1% in the third quarter of the year and by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2025, Feroli's team projects GDP will fall by 0.3%. "We now expect real GDP [gross domestic product] to contract under the weight of the tariffs," Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday night.

JPMorgan becomes the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession following Trump's tariffs

Collectively, Americans now owe a record $1.17 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Credit card balances rose by $24 billion in the third quarter of 2024 and are 8.1% higher than a year ago.Despite that increase, credit card delinquency rates improved — with 8.8% of balances transitioning to delinquency over the last year, compared with 9.1% in the previous quarter, the New York Fed found. That change could “suggest that rising debt burdens remain manageable,” the New York Fed researchers said on a press call Wednesday.

Credit card debt hits record $1.17 trillion, New York Fed research shows

The U.S. budget deficit swelled in November, putting fiscal 2025 already at a much faster pace than a year ago when the shortfall topped $1.8 trillion, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. For the month, the deficit totaled $366.8 billion, 17% higher than November 2023 and taking the total for the first two months of the fiscal year more than 64% higher than the same period a year ago on an unadjusted basis. The increase came despite receipts that totaled $301.8 billion, about $27 billion more than last November. Outlays totaled $668.5 billion, or nearly $80 billion more from a year ago. The increase in red ink brought the national debt to $36.1 trillion as the month drew to a close.

Budget deficit swells in November, pushing fiscal 2025 shortfall 64% higher than a year ago

The top five banks and thrifts with the largest portfolios of home equity loans had more than $94 million in loans combined for the third quarter of last year — more than half of the roughly $178 million amassed by the top 20 institutions. Discover Financial Services in Ridgewood, Illinois, posted the largest year-over-year change in total home equity loans, jumping from $3.9 million in the third quarter of 2023, to $6.1 million the following year. Other organizations with similar improvements include Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland in Ohio with a 28% rise and First Citizens BancShares in Raleigh, North Carolina, with just over 22%.

20 banks and thrifts with the most home equity loans

Global ratings agency Fitch on Thursday downgraded China's long-term foreign currency credit rating to 'A' from 'A+', on expectations of weak public finances and rapidly rising debt.
The latest U.S. reciprocal tariffs have not been incorporated in the forecast, Fitch said, adding that there is uncertainty about their impact.The government's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise further over the next few years due to trade tensions with the U.S., subdued domestic demand and deflationary pressure, the rating agency said. It expects China to be affected by a broader tariff-induced global slowdown, despite the country appearing more resilient to direct U.S. tariffs compared to President Donald Trump's first term.

Fitch cuts China's foreign currency rating on rising debt, weakening finances

The Payment System Regulator (PSR) has revealed that increases to payment processing fees implemented by Visa and Mastercard since 2017 cost UK businesses an extra £170million a year.It says that these increases drastically impact their ability to invest and grow. This could lead to direct economic constraints, particularly for small merchants, as a lack of easy-to-understand fee information led to costs for acquirers and merchants, including small retailers. 

PSR Finds ‘Lack of Competition’ in Card Market, as High Visa and Mastercard Fees Cost Firms Millions

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced the final version of a rule limiting banks’ ability to charge overdraft fees.  It says the rule will save American consumers $5 billion annually.  The CFPB said its overdraft rule will take effect Oct. 1, 2025, though the rule’s ultimate fate is unclear.

CFPB announces rule limiting bank overdraft fees

U.S. banks collectively held more than $1.2 trillion in brokered deposits in the second quarter, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The total marked an 86% increase from a year earlier. Brokered deposits are what they sound like: A bank can go to a third-party broker such as Morgan Stanley or Fidelity to find customers to invest in the bank’s high-yielding certificates of deposit. That allows the bank to get big influxes of money at once, rather than customer by customer. Lots of banks are loading up on them—a sign of the distress that continues to afflict many lenders who now must compete for customer funds they long took for granted.  

Banks Load Up on $1.2 Trillion in Risky ‘Hot’ Deposits

Close to a third of all publicly-held, outstanding U.S. government debt is set to mature in the next 12 months, raising questions about where Treasury might go from there to finance the government’s borrowing needs. A total of $7.6 trillion will mature in the next year, approaching the level seen in early 2021. Concerns about Treasury’s increased issuance of T-bills and the potential for volatility or market disruptions emerged following the debt-ceiling fight in May, when angst over the government’s ability to pay all its bills pushed yields above 7% on debt maturing in early June. 

$7.6 trillion of publicly held U.S. government debt matures in next 12 months. What does the Treasury do next? 

The U.S. Federal Reserve launched FedNow in July, the first government real-time payment system in the U.S. The service allows banks and credit unions to transfer money for their customers instantly. Working alongside existing systems like Fedwire and FedACH, FedNow aims to improve the U.S.'s inter-bank and retail transaction infrastructure.

FedNow Has Launched As Blockchain Innovation Delivers Next-Gen Instant Payments

Even as the economy has surprised forecasters with its resilience, lenders have cut headcount or announced plans to do so, with the key exception being JPMorgan Chase. The next five largest U.S. banks cut a combined 20,000 positions so far this year, according to company filings. A key factor driving the cuts is that job-hopping in finance slowed drastically from earlier years, leaving banks with more people than they expected.

Big banks are quietly cutting thousands of employees, and more layoffs are coming

The U.S. financial services division of Chinese bank ICBC was hit by a cyberattack that reportedly affected the trade of U.S. Treasurys. ICBC, the world’s largest lender by assets, said Thursday its financial services arm experienced a ransomware attack “that resulted in disruption to certain” systems. Security expert have said ransomware from the hacking group LockBit was used to carry out the cyberattack on ICBC. 

China’s ICBC, the world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberattack that reportedly disrupted Treasury markets

Back in November, UBS chair Colm Kelleher predicted that the next financial crisis would happen in shadow banking — delightfully infuriating Apollo’s Marc Rowan, speaking at the same conference later that day. So, the Chairman of UBS was asked at the tail end of his presentation, what is the single biggest risk to financial markets? And Colm said, a blow-up in the shadow banking industry. And with that, he got off the stage.


Is private credit a systemic risk?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell joined a chorus of US officials who have argued that mounting bad commercial real estate loans will likely cause some bank failures, but don’t pose a risk to the overall system.  The central bank chief told lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday that the Fed is talking with lenders to make sure they are on top of potential losses. His comments repeated the assessment of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who last month said there will likely be some failures, but the situation will be “manageable.”

Powell warns commercial real estate woes will lead to bank failures: ‘This is a problem that we’ll be working on for years’

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is reportedly planning a major expansion of its private credit portfolio. The Wall Street giant aims to grow that portfolio to $300 billion in five years, up from $130 billion, a senior executive told Reuters Tuesday (March 12). “It’s a huge opportunity,” said Marc Nachmann, Goldman Sachs’ global head of asset and wealth management. According to the report, Goldman has loftier goals than other banking titans. For example, Morgan Stanley is planning to double its private credit portfolio to $50 billion, while JPMorgan Chase has set aside at least $10 billion for private credit. 

Goldman Sachs Aims for $300 Billion Private Credit Portfolio

New York Community Bancorp Inc.’s stock lost more than a third of its value Wednesday in its steepest one-day drop ever, after it posted a surprise loss, built up its reserves and signaled challenges in the office-space sector with one of two troubled loans. The bank also said it would cut its dividend by more than two-thirds to build up capital to meet regulatory requirements as a larger Category IV bank with assets of $100 billion to $250 billion.  The Hicksville, N.Y.-based bank missed Wall Street’s revenue and net-interest-income estimates and reported an increase in net charge-offs.

New York Community Bancorp’s stock crushed on surprise loss, dividend cut and cost of two loans

Temenos shares were down over 6% on Friday after closing over 28% lower on Thursday.
The Swiss software company said its board of directors “fundamentally refutes” a report by short-seller Hindenburg Research. Short-seller Hindenburg Research made headlines after accusing Indian conglomerate Adani of stock manipulation and accounting fraud in early 2023.

Hindenburg’s latest short target Temenos rejects allegations as share price tumbles

The $1 billion-plus injection that New York Community Bank announced Wednesday is the latest example of private equity players coming to the need of a wounded American lender. Key to these deals is speed and discretion, according to advisors to several recent transactions and external experts. Steven Mnuchin reached out to NYCB directly to offer support amid headlines about the duress it was under, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Why private equity has been involved in every recent bank deal

The six largest U.S. banks saw delinquent commercial property loans nearly triple to $9.3 billion in 2023 amid high vacancy rates and increasing borrowing costs. Today, the sector is facing greater scrutiny from regulators amid growing risks to bank stability. In fact, for almost half of all U.S. banks, commercial real estate debt is the largest loan category overall. While commercial loans are more heavily concentrated in small U.S. banks, several major financial institutions have amassed significant commercial loan portfolios.

Visualizing Major U.S. Banks by Commercial Real Estate Exposure

Banks have now regained all deposits they lost following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. But that doesn't solve many of the problems still faced by regional lenders. The amount of deposits held by all US banks hit $17.56 trillion during the week ending March 20, according to the latest Federal Reserve data, exceeding pre-SVB levels for the first time since the California regional lender was seized on March 10, 2023.

Bank deposits are back above pre-SVB levels. Regional lenders still have problems.

In the six months following its groundbreaking launch in July 2023, FedNow has emerged as a transformative force in real-time payments, marking a significant departure from the traditional Automated Clearing House (ACH) system.  This shift signifies a pivotal moment in banking innovation, offering instantaneous transaction processing that aligns with the modern financial transaction demands.

How FedNow is Shaping Payments Since its Groundbreaking Launch

The Federal Reserve is stressing the importance of fintechs and core providers for the future expansion of its new instant payments system FedNow. The Federal Reserve won’t provide fintechs with direct access to its new instant payments system FedNow, but it’s still courting their participation in the new real-time ecosystem. 

Fintechs can help the Fed see what’s on the horizon for the new faster payment system and allow the new real-time payments services to be easier to use, said Mollie Markham, a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago industry specialist who works with nonbanks. Fintechs can also assist the Fed in providing services that make the most of FedNow’s data-rich capabilities, she said during a conference this month.

Fed courts nonbanks for FedNow growth

The first bank failure of 2024 punctuates the discord that has brewed at Republic First for more than two years. Fulton, meanwhile, will double its Philadelphia presence through the deal. Lancaster, Pennsylvania-based Fulton Bank agreed to purchase substantially all of the assets of beleaguered Philadelphia lender Republic First Bank and assume substantially all of its deposits, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Friday. The Pennsylvania Department of Banking and Securities closed Republic First earlier in the day and appointed the FDIC as receiver.

Republic First is seized, assets sold to Fulton Bank

Private equity firms including Apollo Global, KKR, Blackstone and Brookfield are accelerating efforts to make low-risk loans, encroaching on territory dominated by banks and public debt markets. New York-based group Apollo on Thursday increased its long-term forecasts for its lending business, telling shareholders it expected to be able to originate more than $200bn a year in new loans, up from $150bn previously. This compares with $97bn issued last year including to investment grades European group Vonovia and Air France-KLM. Volumes reached a record $40bn in the first quarter of 2024, it said.


Private equity firms step up plans to edge banks out of low-risk lending

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023 caused plenty of finger-pointing at bank regulators. Many US financial institutions including SVB and First Republic were covering large portions of their liabilities with assets such as government bonds that stood to lose value if interest rates rose significantly—which is exactly what happened. As the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, rumors swirled that the two banks might not have sufficient assets to cover all their deposits. Customers yanked their money out, causing runs at both.

US Bank Regulators Could Have Averted $9 Billion in Losses

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau declared on Wednesday that customers of the burgeoning buy now, pay later industry have the same federal protections as users of credit cards. The agency unveiled what it called an “interpretive rule” that deemed BNPL lenders essentially the same as traditional credit card providers under the decades-old Truth in Lending Act. The BNPL market is dominated by fintech firms like Affirm, Klarna and PayPal.

CFPB says buy now, pay later firms must comply with U.S. credit card laws

“Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” the summary stated. The minutes also showed “various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.” The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024.

Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflation

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said private credit could spark turmoil if the opaque sector of financial markets weakens. "There could be hell to pay," he said at a conference on Wednesday. "I've seen a couple of these deals that were rated by a rating agency and, I have to confess, it shocked me what they got rated. So, it reminds me a little bit of mortgages."

Jamie Dimon says there could be 'hell to pay' if the swelling private-credit market starts showing cracks

After months of business leaders and economists urging action, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)—the central bank of the world’s second biggest economy—finally acquiesced, unleashing a triptych stimulus package aimed at spurring consumer spending to counter persistent deflation. Yet analysts doubt even this “policy bazooka” will have much of an effect. 
On Tuesday, the PBoC unveiled a policy interest rate cut of 0.2 percentage points, combined with a lowering of banks’ reserve requirements and the cutting of existing mortgage interest rates, both by 0.5 percentage points. For the PBoC to unveil three rate cuts at once is itself unprecedented. 

China’s Bold Stimulus Measures Won’t Save Its Flagging Economy

Monetary policy in advanced countries is diverging in a manner that was thought highly unlikely just a few months ago.  A major question facing many central banks around the world is no longer whether interest rate policies in advanced countries will decouple in a manner that was thought highly unlikely just a few months ago. They already have and will do so even more.  The question is the scope and size of the potential divergence, and the implications for reconciling domestic economic priorities with the avoidance of harmful exchange rate volatility.


Europe May Soon Discover the Limits of Decoupling on Rates

The Bank of Canada cut on Wednesday its main interest rate by a quarter-percentage point, becoming the first Group of Seven central bank to provide rate relief after a rapid and aggressive increase in borrowing costs to tame inflation. Canada's central bank said a cut was warranted because of increased confidence that inflation is moving closer to its 2% target. Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said more rate cuts could be in the offing should inflation show further signs of slowing. The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate to 4.75% from 5%, where it sat for 11 months. 

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate to 4.75%, Signals More Easing Possible

The European Central Bank cut its policy rates by 25 basis points, as expected, on Thursday, its first cut in almost five years amid signs that price pressures have weakened. "Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady," the ECB's Governing Council said in a statement. The ECB is the third major central bank to lower its key policy rates, following the Swiss National Bank's move last month and the Bank of Canada's cut on Wednesday.

ECB cuts key interest rates by 25 bps even as outlook on inflation revised up

China’s central bank took new steps to shore up the country’s sputtering economy, highlighting officials’ growing anxiety about growth only days after leader Xi Jinping set out his long-term vision to transform China into a technological powerhouse to rival the U.S. The People’s Bank of China said Thursday that it cut a key interest rate and pumped the equivalent of more than $25 billion into China’s banking system. The move caught investors by surprise, as it occurred outside the usual sequence for policy shifts in the PBOC’s complex collection of interest rates and other tools.

As Growth Sputters, Beijing Tries Again to Jolt China’s Economy

Moody’s Ratings has placed the long-term debt ratings of Old National Bancorp. and several other U.S. regional banks on review for downgrade amid concerns over commercial real-estate exposure.  Peapack-Gladstone Financial. FNB, Old National Bancorp, First Merchants  and Fulton Financial. The rationale for the downgrade warning by Moody’s analysts was the same for all those lenders: “as a regional bank with a substantial concentration in commercial real estate (CRE) loans, it faces ongoing asset quality and profitability pressures as higher-for-longer interest rates heighten the longstanding risks of CRE for banks’ creditworthiness especially during cycle downturns,” said Moody’s.

Moody’s puts several U.S. regional banks on downgrade review over commercial real-estate concerns

The IMF’s second-in-command has urged the US to shrink its mounting fiscal burden, saying strong growth in the world’s largest economy gave it “ample” room to rein in spending and raise taxes. Gita Gopinath, the fund’s first deputy managing director, said it was time for advanced economies to “invest in fiscal consolidation” and address how they plan to bring debt burdens back down to pre-pandemic levels. “For the US, we see ample ground for them to reduce the size of their fiscal deficits, also given the strength of the US economy,” she told the Financial Times in an interview. The warnings come as economists and investors fear that years of fiscal profligacy by both Democrats and Republicans are storing up trouble for the US economy.


IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden

Regional banks around the U.S. are striking complex and costly bargains with hedge funds, hoping to insulate themselves from a replay of the turmoil that followed Silicon Valley Bank’s failure last year. Wall Street smells a payday. Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares recently entered into an arrangement to sell investors some of the risk that its borrowers won’t repay their loans. That helps the bank meet new proposed standards meant to make lenders look healthy to regulators.  The deal is known on Wall Street as a synthetic risk transfer, and it offers cash-flush, private-debt fund managers—such as Ares Management and Blackstone—an attractive investment. 

Regional Banks Want to Slim Down. Hedge Funds Smell a Bargain.

China's yuan is in the midst of a steep decline as holders of the currency eye the risk of US sanctions. The value of the yuan slumped against Russia's ruble for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday, falling to a level of 11.51 rubles. That's the cheapest the yuan has been in about a year.  Central banks, meanwhile, are looking to dump the yuan while raising their holdings of the US dollar. Nearly 20% of central bank reserve managers said they planned on raising dollar holdings over the next one to two years, while 12% said they planned on reducing yuan holdings, according to a survey from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

China's yuan is tumbling amid US sanctions and as central banks boost dollar holdings

Norinchukin Bank will consider investing in a range of assets as it braces for massive losses on the sale of roughly 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) in US and European sovereign bonds. Japan’s biggest agricultural bank will dispose of the foreign bonds gradually during the fiscal year ending March, a company spokesman said in an email. It expects a net loss of 1.5 trillion yen for the year, triple the previous estimate of 500 billion yen. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norinchukin-eyes-assets-including-clos-014942422.html

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