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Tea Leaves and Emerging Economic Trends

The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

Ocean Park is a boutique investment bank that provides mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, financial advisory and restructuring services. Founded in 2004, it has successfully completed over 60 engagements for a range of clients, including private and public companies, start-ups, global corporations, private equity funds, hedge funds, lenders and bankruptcy trustees. The senior professionals of Ocean Park have worked globally in investment banking, management consulting and private equity and as senior executives in agribusiness and renewable fuels companies. This deep experience, combined with an entrepreneurial mindset, allows Ocean Park to provide clients with action-oriented advice.

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Ocean Park Reviews 2024 | BankerAdvisor

Ocean Park

ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood expects that a “changing of the guard” at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission may turbocharge the economy and bring about an influx of innovation and investment in emerging technologies.  “Deregulation, defanging the SEC, FTC, and others, government spending cuts, tax cuts, and a focus on technologically enabled innovation are likely to turbocharge the US economy,” she said, in sharing a video posted by ARK Invest on X on Nov. 11. “We have more clarity now in terms of the investment landscape after the election,” 

‘Defanging the SEC’ may turbocharge US economy: Cathie Wood

Guernsey stock exchange now provides a facility for trading shares in privately held companies. A stock exchange based in the Channel Islands is trying to capitalise on a global drought in initial public offerings with the launch of a facility for buying and selling shares in privately held companies. But this reinvention of its role looks likely to attract stiff competition from larger rivals. The International Stock Exchange (TISE) — which has, for years, specialised in providing a listing venue for corporate debt — last year launched a unit allowing private companies to run auctions in their own shares, without the need for a broker.


TISE finds best place to capitalise on private assets

Nearly half of bank leaders believe their institutions will buy another bank in 2025, suggesting a potential uptick in merger activity in the coming year, according to a new survey on M&A by Bank Director. Forty-three percent of bank leaders said their institutions were very or somewhat likely to buy another bank next year, up from 35% a year earlier, Bank Director reported. As for the reasons, respondents cited scale to drive technology and other investments (43%) and geographic expansion (37%) as the two most important factors driving acquisition strategies.

Bank Leaders Expect Merger Activity to Accelerate in 2025

The new research looks at the UK’s banking sector and how it compares to other G8 countries. It notes that as a result of deregulation reforms, stable interest rates, and divestment of price equity firms as funds near the five-year mark post-pandemic, 2024 could be a pivotal year for UK banking, especially from a job searcher’s point of view. Since 2022, risk and compliance has consistently been the most in-demand area in banking recruitment. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, with 4,559 vacancies representing 15 percent of all sector roles, despite a 20 percent decrease in vacancies. 

Investment Bank Vacancies Soar While Retail Banks Face Decline Reveals Morgan McKinley

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finds himself in a difficult place that no central banker wants to be: working to avert a credit crunch, which calls for looser monetary policy, while fighting high inflation, which demands the opposite. Strains in the banking industry, which followed the collapse of three midsize lenders this spring, help explain why some central bank officials are leaning toward holding interest rates steady at their meeting this week—even though the economy and inflation haven’t slowed as much as they expected.
But current and former central bankers say if stresses worsen, the Fed will face a more difficult trade off. Powell and his colleagues would have to choose between focusing on failing banks or high inflation.

Jerome Powell’s Big Problem Just Got Even More Complicated

Mizuho Financial Group is forging further into U.S. investment banking through a deal to buy Greenhill & Co. as it seeks to accelerate growth.
The Japanese banking giant agreed to buy Greenhill for $15 a share in an all-cash transaction, which values the firm at $550 million including debt, the firms said Monday in a statement. The lender will retain Greenhill's leaders, including Chief Executive Officer Scott Bok, who will be chairman of mergers, acquisitions and restructuring.

Mizuho to buy investment bank Greenhill for $550 million

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts as recent data reveals a concerning trend in the labor market, according to Citi analysts in a note Wednesday. The bank said the percentage of individuals finding "jobs hard to get" is increasing, signaling that the rise in unemployment is not merely a sign of a growing labor supply but an indication of weak hiring conditions.  Citi notes that this trend, observed in the Conference Board survey, is reminiscent of the conditions in September 2001, a period when the U.S. economy was already in recession. This situation suggests that a “hard landing” could be imminent, making further aggressive rate cuts from the Fed more likely, says the bank.

Fed may have to cut aggressively as individuals finding jobs hard to get is rising

Investment bankers’ advisory fees have plunged to the lowest level in almost a decade because of a prolonged slowdown in deal activity. Fees for completed mergers and acquisitions globally plummeted 35 percent in the first half of the year to $12.8bn compared with 2022, the lowest level since 2014, according to data provider Refinitiv.
Global M&A fell 38 percent to $1.3tn in the first half, the lowest deal volume since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, as higher interest rates, stricter antitrust enforcement, and geopolitical tensions hit the market.


FirstFT: Bankers’ fees plunge to near-decade low

The volume of deals worldwide valued at more than $100 million plunged 37% to just 280 during the first half of this year, undercut by rising interest rates and a gloomier outlook for the global economy, Willis Towers Watson said Thursday. “A perfect storm of higher inflation, interest rates, capital costs and greater regulatory scrutiny, combined with major geopolitical headwinds and a banking crisis, have triggered a steeper drop-off in M&A activity than anticipated by the market,” David Dean, a North America managing director at WTW, said in a statement.

M&A plunges 37% during first half of 2023: WTW

SVB Financial Group, the former parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, has entered into an agreement to sell its investment banking business, SVB Securities, to a group led by Jeff Leerink, SVB Securities’ CEO and founder, and backed by funds managed by hedge fund firm The Baupost Group.

SVB Financial Group agrees sale of its investment banking business, SVB Securities

For two long years private companies have spurned public markets, as rising interest rates dashed lofty valuations and stock prices vacillated. All this has been bad news for Wall Street. In 2021 America’s five largest investment banks together earned an average of $13bn per quarter through their dealmaking and initial-public-offering (IPO) desks. Over the next two years they managed barely half of that.

Wall Street is praying firms will start going public again

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