The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

Tamarix Capital Partners is an debt and minority equity private investment firm based in New York. Tamarix Capital Partners provides debt and minority equity to support growing U.S. lower middle market companies with profitable and sustainable business models

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ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood expects that a “changing of the guard” at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission may turbocharge the economy and bring about an influx of innovation and investment in emerging technologies.  “Deregulation, defanging the SEC, FTC, and others, government spending cuts, tax cuts, and a focus on technologically enabled innovation are likely to turbocharge the US economy,” she said, in sharing a video posted by ARK Invest on X on Nov. 11. “We have more clarity now in terms of the investment landscape after the election,” 

‘Defanging the SEC’ may turbocharge US economy: Cathie Wood

As lockdowns gripped Europe in late 2020, KKR was battling to plant its flag in one of the pandemic’s winning industries. The private equity pioneer lost out that year in its bid for German road bike maker Canyon, a darling of Instagram. But bankers later pitched KKR’s dealmakers a consolation prize: Accell, a less modish Dutch manufacturer.  It led to an investment that could become one of the New York buyout giant’s worst in Europe. KKR launched a €1.8bn bid to take Accell private with the backing of its largest shareholder, Teslin, in January 2022.  Less than two years later, Accell found itself struggling under the burden of its debts as a post-pandemic sales slump left it burning through cash. 

Is KKR’s bad bet on cycling the start of Europe’s private equity reckoning?

Goldman Sachs has unveiled several new actions as it looks to strengthen its services for corporate and investor clients and grow its business in private credit, private equity, and other asset classes. These actions include the creation of a Capital Solutions group and the expansion of its alternatives investment team in its Asset and Wealth Management division. 
The Capital Solutions group will bring together and expand Goldman Sachs’ activities related to financing, origination, structuring, and risk management, which are currently part of its Global Banking and Markets division. 

Goldman Sachs launches Capital Solutions group to grow private credit and equity business

The turmoil in global markets this past week is causing private credit funds to question whether they should reconsider the ever-tighter loan margins they’re demanding. Industry stalwarts such as Ares Management Corp. and Blackstone Inc. have been charging less for private credit for most of this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News, as they try to snatch business away from the syndicated loan market. But that strategy may change after recession fears have risen amid a slew of worrying economic reports. 

Private Credit Is Eyeing Bigger Margins on Loans: Credit Weekly

Companies owned by private equity firms are landing in default more frequently than other speculative-grade borrowers, according to a report from Moody’s Ratings. Private equity-backed companies defaulted at a rate of 17% between January 2022 and August of this year, twice the rate of non-private equity-backed companies, Moody’s said in the report released Thursday. Among the 12 largest private equity sponsors — as ranked by Moody’s — the default rate was slightly lower at around 14%.  Platinum Equity had the highest number and share of defaults, out of Moody’s ranking of the 12 largest sponsors, followed by Apollo Global Management and Clearlake Capital Group. 

PE-Backed Firms Suffering Higher Default Rates, Moody’s Says

Guernsey stock exchange now provides a facility for trading shares in privately held companies. A stock exchange based in the Channel Islands is trying to capitalise on a global drought in initial public offerings with the launch of a facility for buying and selling shares in privately held companies. But this reinvention of its role looks likely to attract stiff competition from larger rivals. The International Stock Exchange (TISE) — which has, for years, specialised in providing a listing venue for corporate debt — last year launched a unit allowing private companies to run auctions in their own shares, without the need for a broker.


TISE finds best place to capitalise on private assets

Klarna, which is known for its popular buy now, pay later business, said Wednesday it has confidentially filed IPO documents with the SEC. Analysts recently valued the company in the $15 billion range. Klarna investors include SoftBank, Sequoia Capital and London-based firm Atomico.

Buy now, pay later provider Klarna says it filed confidentially for U.S. IPO

In the summer of 2022, a young marketing executive in London, eager to revamp her wardrobe, clicked “Pay in 4” at checkout. The process was seamless—no credit check, no hassle, and most importantly, no immediate cash outflow. Fast forward six months, she found herself juggling payments across three different BNPL providers, struggling to keep up as late fees and missed payment penalties mounted. Her story is not unique. BNPL has redefined consumer credit, offering frictionless financing at the point of sale. But beneath its convenience lies a pressing concern—are we enabling financial empowerment, or are we simply repackaging debt in a more palatable way?

The BNPL Boom: The Good, The Bad, and The Regulatory Challenge

Prospect, an $8 billion private credit fund, saw $417 million in realized losses for the year ended on June 30, up from $41 million the year before, according to regulatory filings. About $181 million in realized losses were tied to a single investment in PGX Holdings Inc., also known as Progrexion, which filed for bankruptcy in 2023.  S&P said it revised its outlook because of concerns over levels of non-accruals, or loans on which lenders are at risk of losing money, and payment-in-kind income, which it said was higher than its peers. While S&P kept Prospect’s rating steady at BBB-, the lowest tier considered investment-grade, it said it could downgrade the rating if portfolio performance deteriorates.

S&P Puts $8 Billion Prospect Fund on Negative Outlook

BlackRock Inc. (BLK) faces a significant financial setback with its investment in Alacrity, an insurance outsourcing firm, now projected to result in a loss exceeding $600 million. This situation, as reported by Benzinga, comes at a pivotal time as BlackRock prepares for its Q4 earnings release, underscoring the complexities involved in managing investments within the private equity space, especially when burdened with substantial debt. Alacrity’s control has shifted to a consortium of private credit funds, including Antares Capital, Blue Owl Capital, KKR, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, as part of a restructuring necessitated by Alacrity’s ongoing debt issues. 

Massive $600M Loss Hits BlackRock’s Private Equity Fund

U.S. merchants who use JPMorgan to handle payments can soon add Affirm to their checkout pages, according to a release. Consumers will have access to loans ranging from 30 days to 60 months, according to Affirm. The deal follows a similar announcement from rival Klarna last month, in which the Swedish fintech said it would be available to JPMorgan’s merchants.

Affirm announces JPMorgan Chase merchants can soon offer installment loans at checkout

Interest rates are coming down, but only after one of the most brutal monetary tightening periods in modern history. And they’re probably coming down too late, too little and too slowly for a lot of smaller companies and the investment funds that chucked money at them over the past few years. Private credit — basically, bilateral corporate loans made by specialist investment funds rather than banks — has been one of the hottest asset classes over the past decade. Possibly the hottest. Depending on who you believe, there’s somewhere between $2tn and $3tn of money in private credit funds.


How is private credit weathering its first big rate hiking cycle?

HPS Investment Partners could hardly be more different than its suitor, BlackRock. Whereas BlackRock, an $11.5tn powerhouse, is best known for investing clients’ funds across huge swaths of public markets, HPS has earned a windfall on targeted bets in the private lending sector. BlackRock’s more than $12bn deal for HPS earlier this month comes as the world’s biggest asset manager is seeking to compete with groups such as Blackstone and Apollo, which are already deeply entrenched in a market widely seen as one of the next major battlegrounds in finance. 



Why BlackRock is shelling out $12bn for private credit shop HPS

A group of private credit lenders led by Blue Owl Capital and Ares Management has agreed to take over troubled software company Pluralsight, wiping out $4bn that Vista Equity Partners and other investors had put into the business since they bought it less than four years ago. The closely watched restructuring is one of the biggest in which the creditors that ultimately take control are also so-called direct lenders. The deal values Pluralsight at about $900mn, far below the more than $5bn that Vista, its partners and private lenders had invested or lent to the business. Vista and its co-investors had sunk roughly $4bn into Pluralsight, while lenders provided it with about $1.7bn of debt financing.


Vista and co-investors lose $4bn in Pluralsight restructuring

Blackstone (BX.N), beat Wall Street's expectations on its key quarterly earnings metric on Thursday, as the world's largest alternative investment firm's assets under management (AUM) hit a record $1.1 trillion and the value of its funds rose. New York-based Blackstone said it saw $41 billion of inflows during the third quarter, while it deployed and committed $54 billion of capital - the highest in over two years - amid a revival in dealmaking activity as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates and the economic outlook remained sanguine. Over the past few quarters, high interest rates had been a drag on some aspects of Blackstone's business. With the Fed now entering into an easing cycle, the firm saw that weight starting to lift.

Blackstone tops profit estimate as its assets hit record, dealmaking picks up

Investment bankers are gearing up for a pickup in dealmaking activity in global equity capital markets this year, buoyed by a promising pipeline of anticipated initial public offerings of several high-profile companies. Liquefied natural gas producer Venture Global, privately held medical supply giant Medline, and cybersecurity company Sailpoint, backed by private equity firm Thoma Bravo, are expected to headline a crowded line-up of stock market flotations in the first half of 2025, according to people familiar with the matter. Private equity firms have been struggling to sell or list portfolio companies over the past two years due to high interest rates and volatile stock markets that put a chill on dealmaking.

Bankers hope for IPO revival in 2025 as high-profile listings stack up

Major private equity firms have faced significant obstacles in selling or listing their China-based portfolio companies in 2023, with Beijing’s tightening restrictions on IPOs and a decelerating economy having left foreign investors’ capital effectively trapped, according to a report by the Financial Times. Citing data from Dealogic, the report reveals that none of the 10 largest global private equity groups operating in China have successfully listed a Chinese company or fully exited through M&A this year. This marks the first such occurrence in over a decade, though the pace of exits has been sluggish since Beijing imposed restrictions on Chinese companies’ overseas listings in 2021. 

Blackstone, KKR, CVC curbed by China’s IPO clampdown

Americans express rising alarm over economy and job prospects as Trump’s tariffs weigh on outlook. Wall Street stocks dropped on Friday as signs of strain among American consumers added to worries the US is heading for a bout of stagflation. A batch of data added fresh evidence that consumers are growing deeply concerned about how President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs will affect the world’s largest economy, while a separate report showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose in February. 


US stocks tumble as consumer gloom raises stagflation fears

State Street Global Advisors, the asset management business of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), announced today that it is working with Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE: APO), a leading provider of alternative assets and retirement solutions, and its affiliates (collectively, Apollo), to expand investor access to private market opportunities. "Private assets are one of the fastest growing sectors of the financial industry. We are excited to be working with Apollo, a global leader in alternative assets, to continue to increase accessibility to private markets, opening them to an even larger cross section of investors," said Ron O’Hanley, president and chief executive officer of State Street. 

State Street Global Advisors and Apollo Global Management Join Forces to Increase and Broaden Investor Access to Private Markets

BlackRock has a handshake deal to buy private credit group HPS Investment Partners, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. The final deal value would be closer to $12 billion, which offers a significant premium over HPS's post-IPO valuation of $10 billion, the report said, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The two sides have agreed on the broad outline of the deal with an eye towards announcing general terms after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the report added, citing four people familiar with the matter.

BlackRock has deal to buy private credit manager HPS, FT reports

Recent and upcoming rate cuts will provide relief for private credit borrowers through lower funding costs in 2025, even as many have already benefitted from repricing and improving financing conditions. 

How This Will Shape 2025 
Repricing will continue to change market dynamics. Companies should see a bigger benefit from rate cuts in 2025 than this year. Competition and convergence between public and private markets will continue. With growth and innovations in private markets, some borrowers have the luxury of choice between broadly syndicated or private credit. 

Private Markets: How Will Private Credit Respond To Declining Yields?

 Inflation in the euro area rose from 1.7% to 2% in October, flash figures showed Thursday, coming in slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast. Core inflation and services inflation were both unchanged on the previous month. Markets currently expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, with one analyst saying the latest data would end debate over whether a larger 50-basis-point cut is warranted.

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

Higher interest rates and lower consumer spending are squeezing debt-laden companies backed by private equity groups, forcing them to either restructure through bankruptcy or buy time to recover via out-of-court settlements with creditors. The stress on private equity-backed companies shows up starkest in a recent study by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which shows that a record number of 110 private equity and venture capital-backed companies filed for bankruptcy in 2024. 


‘Leveraged to the hilt’: PE-backed firms hit by wave of bankruptcies

The majority of public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds (58%) expect to increase their infrastructure allocations over the next 12 to 24 months, according to the OMFIF’s Global Public Funds 2024 report. The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is a forum for central banking, economic policy and public investment. Twenty-eight global public funds with a combined $6.5 trillion in assets. This is up from 53% that had the same expectation in last year’s survey and 42% in 2022. 

Most global public funds plan to increase infrastructure allocations — OMFIF report

State Street Global Advisors' much-anticipated private credit exchange-traded fund, developed with alternative investment firm Apollo Global Management, began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday. The SPDR SSGA Apollo IG Public & Private Credit ETF is the first product offering retail investors direct access to a diversified portfolio of private credit assets.

State Street launches Apollo private credit ETF

JPMorgan believes the US economy will enter a recession in the back half of 2025 as the impact of President Trump tariffs takes hold in the economy. The firm's chief US economist Michael Feroli sees a two-quarter recession occurring in the back half of 2025 as GDP contracts by 1% in the third quarter of the year and by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2025, Feroli's team projects GDP will fall by 0.3%. "We now expect real GDP [gross domestic product] to contract under the weight of the tariffs," Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday night.

JPMorgan becomes the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession following Trump's tariffs

Investors looking for more solid longer-term returns should be looking at credit — and not banking on the S&P 500 to get them there, according to billionaire investor Howard Marks. 
“From the S&P, you’re not going to get the historic return of 10% a year for the next decade. You will get something less and if that’s true, then the returns described from credit are quite competitive and dependable,” Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, said in an interview with India’s Economic Times published Friday.

Howard Marks expects a lower return from the S&P 500 over the next decade. Here’s what he likes better.

Marathon Asset Management, a leading global credit investment manager, today announced the final close for the third vintage of a closed-end asset-based lending fund with $1.7 billion of capital commitments.  As traditional lenders have downsized their lending programs, Marathon’s ABL strategy is designed to pursue compelling returns for clients by creating a diversified portfolio through sourcing, underwriting, and structuring attractive private investments that exhibit principal protection, robust asset coverage and predictable cashflows. , Marathon also intends to capitalize on the secondary loan market opportunities, as select undercapitalized financial institutions seek to improve their financial condition through asset sales.

Marathon Asset Management Closes $1.7 Billion Asset-Based Lending Fund

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is reportedly planning a major expansion of its private credit portfolio. The Wall Street giant aims to grow that portfolio to $300 billion in five years, up from $130 billion, a senior executive told Reuters Tuesday (March 12). “It’s a huge opportunity,” said Marc Nachmann, Goldman Sachs’ global head of asset and wealth management. According to the report, Goldman has loftier goals than other banking titans. For example, Morgan Stanley is planning to double its private credit portfolio to $50 billion, while JPMorgan Chase has set aside at least $10 billion for private credit. 

Goldman Sachs Aims for $300 Billion Private Credit Portfolio

The $1 billion-plus injection that New York Community Bank announced Wednesday is the latest example of private equity players coming to the need of a wounded American lender. Key to these deals is speed and discretion, according to advisors to several recent transactions and external experts. Steven Mnuchin reached out to NYCB directly to offer support amid headlines about the duress it was under, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Why private equity has been involved in every recent bank deal

Private equity firms including Apollo Global, KKR, Blackstone and Brookfield are accelerating efforts to make low-risk loans, encroaching on territory dominated by banks and public debt markets. New York-based group Apollo on Thursday increased its long-term forecasts for its lending business, telling shareholders it expected to be able to originate more than $200bn a year in new loans, up from $150bn previously. This compares with $97bn issued last year including to investment grades European group Vonovia and Air France-KLM. Volumes reached a record $40bn in the first quarter of 2024, it said.


Private equity firms step up plans to edge banks out of low-risk lending

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau declared on Wednesday that customers of the burgeoning buy now, pay later industry have the same federal protections as users of credit cards. The agency unveiled what it called an “interpretive rule” that deemed BNPL lenders essentially the same as traditional credit card providers under the decades-old Truth in Lending Act. The BNPL market is dominated by fintech firms like Affirm, Klarna and PayPal.

CFPB says buy now, pay later firms must comply with U.S. credit card laws

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said private credit could spark turmoil if the opaque sector of financial markets weakens. "There could be hell to pay," he said at a conference on Wednesday. "I've seen a couple of these deals that were rated by a rating agency and, I have to confess, it shocked me what they got rated. So, it reminds me a little bit of mortgages."

Jamie Dimon says there could be 'hell to pay' if the swelling private-credit market starts showing cracks

After months of business leaders and economists urging action, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)—the central bank of the world’s second biggest economy—finally acquiesced, unleashing a triptych stimulus package aimed at spurring consumer spending to counter persistent deflation. Yet analysts doubt even this “policy bazooka” will have much of an effect. 
On Tuesday, the PBoC unveiled a policy interest rate cut of 0.2 percentage points, combined with a lowering of banks’ reserve requirements and the cutting of existing mortgage interest rates, both by 0.5 percentage points. For the PBoC to unveil three rate cuts at once is itself unprecedented. 

China’s Bold Stimulus Measures Won’t Save Its Flagging Economy

Private investment group Sixth Street will pump $4bn into a vehicle to buy loans from US fintech Affirm in a deal that will give the lender firepower to make billions of dollars in additional consumer loans.The pact, which is expected to give Affirm the ability to make $20bn in new loans in the next three years, is the latest tie-up between a private credit fund and consumer credit provider, as the industry taps new avenues to lend to Americans struggling from years of high inflation.The structures allow companies such as Affirm and Sweden-based Klarna — which specialise in “buy now, pay later” loans — to offload debt they have underwritten from their balance sheets, shifting the risks to investors. 


Sixth Street pact hands Affirm firepower for $20bn in new consumer loans

Regional banks around the U.S. are striking complex and costly bargains with hedge funds, hoping to insulate themselves from a replay of the turmoil that followed Silicon Valley Bank’s failure last year. Wall Street smells a payday. Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares recently entered into an arrangement to sell investors some of the risk that its borrowers won’t repay their loans. That helps the bank meet new proposed standards meant to make lenders look healthy to regulators.  The deal is known on Wall Street as a synthetic risk transfer, and it offers cash-flush, private-debt fund managers—such as Ares Management and Blackstone—an attractive investment. 

Regional Banks Want to Slim Down. Hedge Funds Smell a Bargain.

Blackstone plans to double the size of its European private credit fund in the next year after raising €1bn from the region’s rich to invest in the booming $1.7tn market in private corporate loans. The private equity giant has taken nearly two years to reach the milestone following the 2022 launch of its European Private Credit Fund, known as ECRED, which aims to replicate the success of its $54bn US flagship fund.


Blackstone draws €1bn into European private credit fund

The Bank of England joined the growing list of policymakers and market participants concerned about the booming $1.6-trillion private credit market. The central bank’s Financial Policy Committee on Wednesday highlighted riskier types of corporate borrowing such as private credit and leveraged lending as particularly vulnerable to “sharp revaluations” in credit markets, as higher interest rates could make it harder for companies to refinance debt.

Bank of England Issues Warning on Private Debt, Leveraged Loans

Sports investment group Arctos Partners is in advanced talks to buy a majority stake in European credit investment shop Hayfin Capital Management in tandem with its top executives, according to people with knowledge of the matter.  Arctos has partnered with top Hayfin executives, including co-founders Tim Flynn and Mark Tognolini, in the deal, which is expected to hand a majority of the common stock owned by the British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) to the management team when it is completed. 


European credit group Hayfin Capital nears buyout deal

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