Saudia Arabia No Longer Exclusively Selling Oil in US Dollars

Implications of the Expiration of the Petrodollar Agreement

Futility Index

The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

The Riksbank is Sweden’s central bank and a public authority under the Swedish parliament, Riksdag and founded in 1668.  The Riksbank is responsible for conducting Swedish monetary policy, maintaining price stability, and managing a safe and efficient payment mechanism.

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Despite central bank gold buying slowing moderately in the second quarter, it set a record through the first half of 2024. Central banks globally added a net 483 tons of gold through the first six months of the year,  5 percent above the record of 460 tons in H1 2023.In the second quarter, central bank gold demand totaled 183 tons, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council. That was up 6 percent year-on-year, but about 39 percent lower than the Q1 buying pace.  

Central Bank Gold Buying Through First Half of 2024 Sets Record

Credit ratings agency Moody's unexpectedly downgraded France's rating on Friday, adding pressure on the country's new prime minister to corral divided lawmakers into backing his efforts to rein in the strained public finances. The downgrade, which came outside of Moody's regular review schedule for France, brings its rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2" with a stable outlook for future moves and puts it in line with those from rival agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch. It comes hours after President Emmanuel Macron named on Friday veteran centrist politician and early ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister this year.


Moody's hands France surprise downgrade over deteriorating finances

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Thursday she supported the recent interest rate cuts but said the December reduction should be the “final step” in the easing process.
Even with the full percentage points of cuts from September through December, there are still “upside risks to inflation,” she added. Other Fed speakers this week provided views contrary to that of Bowman, who is generally regarded as one of the committee’s more hawkish members.

Fed Governor Bowman says December interest rate cut should be the last

In recent days, multiple central bank policymakers not only have noted the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, they also have highlighted the potential impact on inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cited a number of supply chain threats that include “large tariffs and the potential for an escalating trade war.” Economists generally see tariffs as having one-time impacts on prices. However, in this case Trump is casting a wide enough net that it could generate the kind of underlying inflation the Fed fears. Federal Reserve officials take great pains not to comment on fiscal policy, but the looming threat from tariffs is forcing their hand.

Fed officials are raising concerns about the impact Trump’s tariffs could have on inflation

Treasury yields moved higher Tuesday following a poor auction on the five-year note and as investors await fresh data releases on inflation. Yields perked up after a $70 billion Treasury Department auction of 5-year notes was met with weak demand. The bid-to-cover ratio, a widely followed demand gauge, came in at 2.3, below a 10-auction average of 2.45. Investors are hungry for more data on the economic and inflationary picture after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, released last week, showed uncertainty among policymakers about when to ease policy. On Friday, they will parse the April personal income and expenditures report, which includes a measurement of price movements across a range of consumer expenses.

10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5% following weak auction

China's central bank said on Thursday it would start accepting applications from financial institutions to join a newly created funding scheme, initially worth 500 billion yuan ($70.62 billion), to aid the capital market. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said eligible securities firms, fund companies and insurers can apply to join the swap scheme, which gives them easier access to funding to buy stocks.

China kicks off 500 bln yuan swap facility to aid stock market

The Reserve Bank of India has cut its key interest rate for the first time in nearly five years, as cooling inflation has offered room to stimulate the slowing economy. The central bank forecast real GDP growth for next fiscal year at 6.7%, and inflation rate at 4.2%. The Monetary Policy Committee decided to trim the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in a livestreamed address.

India’s central bank cuts rates for the first time in nearly five years, forecasts faster growth next year

An inflation gauge in Japan that is closely watched by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) came in at a seven-month high in November, which could prompt the central bank to raise rates early next year. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy and is tracked by the BOJ, rose to 2.4% from 2.3%, its highest level since April. The core inflation rate — which strips out prices of fresh food — came in at 2.7%, up from the 2.3% seen in October and beating the 2.6% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

An inflation gauge tracked by the Bank of Japan just jumped to a seven-month high

China kept its main benchmark lending rates unchanged on Friday, as Beijing faces the challenge of bolstering economic growth while backstopping a weakening yuan. The People’s Bank of China said it would steady the one-year loan prime rate at 3.1%, with the five-year LPR at 3.6%. The 1-year LPR affects corporate and most household loans, while the 5-year LPR serves as a reference for mortgage rates. The move was expected according to a Reuters poll of 27 economists. The rate decision came on the back of a widely-expected 25-basis-points rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed also indicated it will only reduce interest rates twice in 2025, fewer than the four cuts in its September meeting’s projection.

China keeps benchmark lending rates steady as Fed signals fewer cuts ahead

Russia’s central bank on Friday unexpectedly left its key interest rates unchanged at 21%, citing improved monetary tightness that had created the conditions to tame sky-high inflation.
Markets had widely expected the central bank to hike interest rates by another 200 basis on Friday, after taking such a step in October. Russia’s consumer price index hit 8.9% in November on an annual basis, up from 8.5% in October.

Russian central bank surprises markets by holding key rate at 21%

The Bank of Korea held its benchmark policy rate at 3% in a surprise move so as to assess changes in domestic and external economic conditions. The BOK’s decision surprised economists polled by Reuters, which were expecting a 25-basis-points cut. The BOK also said that GDP growth would “highly likely” miss its 2024 and 2025 forecasts.

Bank of Korea leaves rates unchanged in a surprise move, warns GDP growth ‘highly likely’ to miss forecasts

Launched in July 2023, the Federal Reserve's FedNow service has been a game-changer in the U.S. payments landscape. With over 900 financial institutions onboarded, including major players like Chase and Wells Fargo, FedNow is reshaping the future of payments in the U.S. FedNow represents a significant shift from the traditional Automated Clearing House (ACH) system to real-time payments, ensuring transactions are processed instantly, 24/7/365. ACH, while effective, typically requires one to two business days for transaction completion. In contrast, FedNow processes payments in seconds, offering a faster and more efficient alternative that aligns the U.S. with global payment standards. 

One Year Since the FedNow Launch: What You Should Know

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.8 in a preliminary February reading, down from 71.1 in the prior month and the lowest reading since July.  Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected sentiment to rise to a reading of 74 in February. The decline in sentiment was widespread, with lower readings for Republicans, Democrats and independents. Another key part of the report is the University of Michigan’s measure of inflation expectations. According to the report, Americans’ expectations for overall inflation over the next year jumped to 4.3% in February from 3.3% in the prior month. 

Consumer sentiment drops sharply in February as inflation worries soar

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key interest rate to 3.25%, in its third quarter-percentage-point reduction of the year. The move had been fully priced by markets after policymakers flagged reduced inflation risks and a weakening growth outlook.  It is the first time the ECB has reduced rates at consecutive meetings since December 2011.

European Central Bank lowers key rate to 3.25% in third cut this year: Live updates

Interest rates are coming down, but only after one of the most brutal monetary tightening periods in modern history. And they’re probably coming down too late, too little and too slowly for a lot of smaller companies and the investment funds that chucked money at them over the past few years. Private credit — basically, bilateral corporate loans made by specialist investment funds rather than banks — has been one of the hottest asset classes over the past decade. Possibly the hottest. Depending on who you believe, there’s somewhere between $2tn and $3tn of money in private credit funds.


How is private credit weathering its first big rate hiking cycle?

The RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.10% on Tuesday, marking its first easing since November 2020, when the central bank cut its key rate to a record low in the depths of the pandemic. The central bank had held its policy rate steady at 4.35% since November 2023, following an extended period of 13 rate hikes to tame inflation at home.

Australia’s central bank cuts rates for the first time in more than four years, flags economic uncertainties

In a significant move to counteract international sanctions and reduce dependency on the global financial system Swift, Russia has called on BRICS nations to establish a new cross-border payments network, reported Bloomberg. This initiative is aimed at facilitating transactions in local currencies and strengthening economic ties within the bloc. The proposed network would involve a consortium of commercial banks capable of executing transactions in the respective local currencies of BRICS countries. It also suggests the establishment of direct connections between central banks to further insulate the group from external financial systems.

Russia proposes Swift alternative for cross-border payments

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 6–7, 2024. In their discussion of financial stability, participants who commented noted vulnerabilities to the financial system that they assessed warranted monitoring, including continued risks associated with unrealized losses on bank assets and vulnerabilities associated with CRE exposures, focusing on risks in the office sector. In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time.

FOMC Minutes: "appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance"

Cross-border payments keep the world connected, fueling everything from international trade to daily transactions. However, in the rapidly developing world, traditional systems like SWIFT might find themselves outdated. They are starting to fall behind, stopped by delays, high costs, and inefficiencies. This results in less year-on-year growth. Due to inconveniences, they have gradually been replaced by blockchain, a revolutionary technology promising to shake up how money moves across borders. Think speed, transparency, security, and cost savings tools all into one—this is blockchain. Let’s dive deeper into this topic and consider why blockchain is leading this financial revolution.

Blockchain vs. SWIFT: Why Traditional Systems Can't Keep Up in the Global Economy

 Inflation in the euro area rose from 1.7% to 2% in October, flash figures showed Thursday, coming in slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast. Core inflation and services inflation were both unchanged on the previous month. Markets currently expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, with one analyst saying the latest data would end debate over whether a larger 50-basis-point cut is warranted.

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

The Bank of England aims to develop the ability to lend to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). It is doing so to address potential liquidity challenges in core financial markets that could threaten the United Kingdom’s financial stability, the bank said in a final report on its system-wide exploratory scenario exercise. This exercise explored how the U.K. financial system — including banks, insurers, pension plans, hedge funds, asset managers and central counterparties — would respond to a market shock, it said in the report. It found that while NBFIs have become more resilient in recent years, that could change over time, and those changes could be amplified by the financial system as a whole, according to the report. 

Bank of England Seeks Ability to Lend to Non-Bank Financial Institutions

India’s central bank expectedly kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% on Friday as it struggles to contain rising inflation without hurting growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
The central bank also announced a cut to banks’ cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.0% to bolster liquidity in the economy. Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank had revised India’s GDP growth outlook for fiscal year 2025 down to 6.6% — RBI had forecast 7.2% growth in October.

Asia Economy India’s central bank revises down economic growth forecast for 2025, keeps interest rate steady

The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, according to the PBOC statement. The PBOC has ramped up measures lately to avoid a sharp fall in the currency that could spark excessive volatility while stressing the importance of FX stability. The central bank had surprised the markets by shaving the major short- and long-term lending rates in July, followed by a widely-anticipated 25-basis-point cut in October.

China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged as it contends with a weakening yuan

The U.S. government is on track to spend more than $1 trillion on interest payments this year, surpassing military spending for the first time in history. Interest payments on the national debt (held by the public in the form of Treasury securities) will cost the government $1.2 trillion in the government's fiscal year ending in October, the Treasury Department said in a monthly report on the budget. Interest payments are driven by a combination of deficit spending, especially during the pandemic, and the Federal Reserve's campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes.



A Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Payments Are Blowing Up The Federal Budget

The European Central Bank (ECB) is developing a new platform to settle transactions using distributed ledger technology (DLT) in central bank money, aiming to integrate and harmonise the European financial market for digital assets. The move is part of the ECB’s ongoing efforts to ensure that the financial sector can leverage the benefits of DLT while maintaining the stability and integrity of the monetary system. The initiative will follow a dual-track approach, with the immediate focus on developing an interoperability link with TARGET Services. These services facilitate the movement of cash, securities and collateral across Europe, playing a key role in the financial infrastructure.

European Central Bank Outlines Two-Track Approach to Enhance DLT Transaction Settlements

A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. Fed officials head into their two-day policy meeting Tuesday closer to their goal of low inflation, but how much they will ease interest rates remains an open question.  “The federal funds rate has been over 5%, has been there for over a year to fight inflation. That fight is won. They need to start getting out of the way,” economist Claudia Sahm said.

The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air

South Korea’s central bank lowered its key policy rate for a second straight month and said the country’s economy will grow at a slower pace than it initially anticipated. Following a policy meeting, the Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3%. The bank lowered its outlook for the country’s economic growth to 2.2% from 2.4% for this year and to 1.9% from 2.1% for 2025. The bank is taking steps to lower borrowing costs despite the lingering effects of high inflation and alarming levels of household debt, as the economy falters.

South Korea’s central bank cuts key interest rate to nurse a slower economy

In a statement Thursday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said she was “pleased” the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. would review the decision to lay off more workers. The recent FDIC firings were part of DOGE’s effort to shrink the federal bureaucracy. The FDIC is already severely understaffed, Warren has said.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren: DOGE’s FDIC firings put banking system at risk

China will sharply increase funding from ultra-long treasury bonds in 2025 to spur business investment and consumer-boosting initiatives, a state planner official said on Friday, as Beijing cranks up fiscal stimulus to revitalise the faltering economy. Special treasury bonds will be used to fund large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, said Yuan Da, deputy secretary-general of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) at a press conference. "The size of ultra-long special government bond funds will be sharply increased this year to intensify and expand the implementation of the two new initiatives," Yuan said. 

China will sharply increase funding from treasury bonds to spur growth in 2025

The National Center for Public Policy Research — a Washington DC-based think tank championing free markets — submitted a shareholder proposal to Amazon saying that a Bitcoin corporate treasury strategy should be considered at the April 2025 shareholder meeting.
According to the proposal, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used to measure inflation, which currently puts inflation at 4.95%, is a “remarkably poor measure” of true currency debasement. The authors suggested the true inflation rate may be double the reported CPI figure. This greatly erodes Amazon’s $88 billion in cash and short-term cash equivalents, the letter said, and to protect shareholder value, Bitcoin should be used to hedge against this risk. 

National Center for Public Policy Research proposes BTC treasury to Amazon

Wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, adding to a string of sticky inflation prints. Thursday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that its producer price index (PPI) — which tracks the price changes companies see — rose 3% from the year prior, up from the 2.4% in October and above the 2.6% increase economists had projected. This marked the highest year-over-year increase since February 2023. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.4%, compared to the 0.2% seen in October. 

PPI shows wholesale inflation jumped more than expected amid 'extended and bumpy journey' to Fed's target

The U.S. budget deficit swelled in November, putting fiscal 2025 already at a much faster pace than a year ago when the shortfall topped $1.8 trillion, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. For the month, the deficit totaled $366.8 billion, 17% higher than November 2023 and taking the total for the first two months of the fiscal year more than 64% higher than the same period a year ago on an unadjusted basis. The increase came despite receipts that totaled $301.8 billion, about $27 billion more than last November. Outlays totaled $668.5 billion, or nearly $80 billion more from a year ago. The increase in red ink brought the national debt to $36.1 trillion as the month drew to a close.

Budget deficit swells in November, pushing fiscal 2025 shortfall 64% higher than a year ago

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts as recent data reveals a concerning trend in the labor market, according to Citi analysts in a note Wednesday. The bank said the percentage of individuals finding "jobs hard to get" is increasing, signaling that the rise in unemployment is not merely a sign of a growing labor supply but an indication of weak hiring conditions.  Citi notes that this trend, observed in the Conference Board survey, is reminiscent of the conditions in September 2001, a period when the U.S. economy was already in recession. This situation suggests that a “hard landing” could be imminent, making further aggressive rate cuts from the Fed more likely, says the bank.

Fed may have to cut aggressively as individuals finding jobs hard to get is rising

Moody's on Friday lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to "negative" from "stable" citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability, a move that drew immediate criticism from President Joe Biden's administration. The move follows a rating downgrade of the sovereign by another ratings agency, Fitch, this year, which came after months of political brinkmanship around the U.S. debt ceiling.

Moody's turns negative on US credit rating, draws Washington ire

Norway's central bank surprised markets by raising its key policy rate Thursday, saying that a final hike in the current cycle was needed to ensure that inflation doesn't remain too high for an extended period. Norges Bank increased its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, versus a Dow Jones poll before the decision that had pointed to an unchanged rate of 4.25%.

Norway Central Bank Surprises With Quarter-Percentage Point Rate Hike to 4.5%

Europe’s central bankers may be privately cursing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for the dovish press conference he delivered on Wednesday. “Who wants to hang on for too long,” asked an ailing European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the central bank’s post-decision press conference on Thursday, in response to the third question she received about Powell’s tone. But Lagarde said over and over that the ECB wasn’t about to “lower our guard” and claimed the governing council did not even discuss rate cuts.

ECB’s Lagarde, Bank of England’s Bailey fight back against rate-cut talk

The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Chatter has spilled into government and finance heavyweights, and has one prominent Wall Street firm wondering if costs associated with the debt pose a risk to the stock market rally. The CBO estimates that debt held by the public compared to GDP will rise to “an amount greater than at any point in the nation’s history.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recently that “this is something that elected people need to get their arms around sooner rather than later.”

Soaring debt and deficits causing worry about threats to the economy and markets

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023 caused plenty of finger-pointing at bank regulators. Many US financial institutions including SVB and First Republic were covering large portions of their liabilities with assets such as government bonds that stood to lose value if interest rates rose significantly—which is exactly what happened. As the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, rumors swirled that the two banks might not have sufficient assets to cover all their deposits. Customers yanked their money out, causing runs at both.

US Bank Regulators Could Have Averted $9 Billion in Losses

“Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” the summary stated. The minutes also showed “various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.” The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024.

Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflation

After months of business leaders and economists urging action, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)—the central bank of the world’s second biggest economy—finally acquiesced, unleashing a triptych stimulus package aimed at spurring consumer spending to counter persistent deflation. Yet analysts doubt even this “policy bazooka” will have much of an effect. 
On Tuesday, the PBoC unveiled a policy interest rate cut of 0.2 percentage points, combined with a lowering of banks’ reserve requirements and the cutting of existing mortgage interest rates, both by 0.5 percentage points. For the PBoC to unveil three rate cuts at once is itself unprecedented. 

China’s Bold Stimulus Measures Won’t Save Its Flagging Economy

Monetary policy in advanced countries is diverging in a manner that was thought highly unlikely just a few months ago.  A major question facing many central banks around the world is no longer whether interest rate policies in advanced countries will decouple in a manner that was thought highly unlikely just a few months ago. They already have and will do so even more.  The question is the scope and size of the potential divergence, and the implications for reconciling domestic economic priorities with the avoidance of harmful exchange rate volatility.


Europe May Soon Discover the Limits of Decoupling on Rates

The Bank of Canada cut on Wednesday its main interest rate by a quarter-percentage point, becoming the first Group of Seven central bank to provide rate relief after a rapid and aggressive increase in borrowing costs to tame inflation. Canada's central bank said a cut was warranted because of increased confidence that inflation is moving closer to its 2% target. Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said more rate cuts could be in the offing should inflation show further signs of slowing. The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate to 4.75% from 5%, where it sat for 11 months. 

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate to 4.75%, Signals More Easing Possible

The European Central Bank cut its policy rates by 25 basis points, as expected, on Thursday, its first cut in almost five years amid signs that price pressures have weakened. "Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady," the ECB's Governing Council said in a statement. The ECB is the third major central bank to lower its key policy rates, following the Swiss National Bank's move last month and the Bank of Canada's cut on Wednesday.

ECB cuts key interest rates by 25 bps even as outlook on inflation revised up

China’s central bank took new steps to shore up the country’s sputtering economy, highlighting officials’ growing anxiety about growth only days after leader Xi Jinping set out his long-term vision to transform China into a technological powerhouse to rival the U.S. The People’s Bank of China said Thursday that it cut a key interest rate and pumped the equivalent of more than $25 billion into China’s banking system. The move caught investors by surprise, as it occurred outside the usual sequence for policy shifts in the PBOC’s complex collection of interest rates and other tools.

As Growth Sputters, Beijing Tries Again to Jolt China’s Economy

The IMF’s second-in-command has urged the US to shrink its mounting fiscal burden, saying strong growth in the world’s largest economy gave it “ample” room to rein in spending and raise taxes. Gita Gopinath, the fund’s first deputy managing director, said it was time for advanced economies to “invest in fiscal consolidation” and address how they plan to bring debt burdens back down to pre-pandemic levels. “For the US, we see ample ground for them to reduce the size of their fiscal deficits, also given the strength of the US economy,” she told the Financial Times in an interview. The warnings come as economists and investors fear that years of fiscal profligacy by both Democrats and Republicans are storing up trouble for the US economy.


IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden

China's yuan is in the midst of a steep decline as holders of the currency eye the risk of US sanctions. The value of the yuan slumped against Russia's ruble for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday, falling to a level of 11.51 rubles. That's the cheapest the yuan has been in about a year.  Central banks, meanwhile, are looking to dump the yuan while raising their holdings of the US dollar. Nearly 20% of central bank reserve managers said they planned on raising dollar holdings over the next one to two years, while 12% said they planned on reducing yuan holdings, according to a survey from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

China's yuan is tumbling amid US sanctions and as central banks boost dollar holdings

The Bank of England joined the growing list of policymakers and market participants concerned about the booming $1.6-trillion private credit market. The central bank’s Financial Policy Committee on Wednesday highlighted riskier types of corporate borrowing such as private credit and leveraged lending as particularly vulnerable to “sharp revaluations” in credit markets, as higher interest rates could make it harder for companies to refinance debt.

Bank of England Issues Warning on Private Debt, Leveraged Loans

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