DOGEing a Crisis

Bank stocks are often perceived to be a harbinger of broader economic trends so BankerAdvisor wheeled around some of the big banks’ reported second quarter earnings to spot broad movements

Tea Leaves and Emerging Economic Trends

The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

Relevant C Business Group (RCBG) assists companies with business strategy and revenue growth, often around emerging technologies and business models.

Its focus is TMT [technology, media, telecom] and  served markets include service and content providers, device and infrastructure manufacturers, application and media partners.The firm’s clients include service providers (telco, cable, wireless, satellite), infrastructure suppliers, content owners, and key investors including venture capital and private equity.

United States

North America

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RCBG Reviews 2025 | BankerAdvisor

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ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood expects that a “changing of the guard” at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission may turbocharge the economy and bring about an influx of innovation and investment in emerging technologies.  “Deregulation, defanging the SEC, FTC, and others, government spending cuts, tax cuts, and a focus on technologically enabled innovation are likely to turbocharge the US economy,” she said, in sharing a video posted by ARK Invest on X on Nov. 11. “We have more clarity now in terms of the investment landscape after the election,” 

‘Defanging the SEC’ may turbocharge US economy: Cathie Wood

Calastone, the largest global funds network, has today released groundbreaking research, revealing that tokenisation – the process of transforming asset ownership into digital tokens on a blockchain – holds the potential to unlock over $135 billion[2] in cost savings for the asset management industry. The research also identifies that fund processing costs are projected to rise by 32% over the next three years, putting firms under increasing pressure to modernise.

Calastone Research Reveals Tokenisation Could Save $135 billion for Asset Management Industry

Guernsey stock exchange now provides a facility for trading shares in privately held companies. A stock exchange based in the Channel Islands is trying to capitalise on a global drought in initial public offerings with the launch of a facility for buying and selling shares in privately held companies. But this reinvention of its role looks likely to attract stiff competition from larger rivals. The International Stock Exchange (TISE) — which has, for years, specialised in providing a listing venue for corporate debt — last year launched a unit allowing private companies to run auctions in their own shares, without the need for a broker.


TISE finds best place to capitalise on private assets

Jefferies Financial reported an over three-fold rise in fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday as the investment bank earned higher fees from deal advisory and underwriting activity remained strong. An ebullient market, falling interest rates and hopes for an easier regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration have boosted corporate sentiment toward mergers and acquisitions. Initial public offerings and debt offerings also saw a significant improvement in the second half of 2024.Global investment banking revenue surged 26% to $86.8 billion in 2024, led by North America, which recorded a 33% increase, according to data from Dealogic. Jefferies earned the seventh highest fees across banks over the same period.

Jefferies’ profit more than triples on investment banking windfall

Nearly half of bank leaders believe their institutions will buy another bank in 2025, suggesting a potential uptick in merger activity in the coming year, according to a new survey on M&A by Bank Director. Forty-three percent of bank leaders said their institutions were very or somewhat likely to buy another bank next year, up from 35% a year earlier, Bank Director reported. As for the reasons, respondents cited scale to drive technology and other investments (43%) and geographic expansion (37%) as the two most important factors driving acquisition strategies.

Bank Leaders Expect Merger Activity to Accelerate in 2025

Circle Internet, the US group behind the world’s second-largest stablecoin, has filed to list in New York, the first major cryptocurrency company to try for an initial public offering since President Donald Trump ushered in a more favourable environment towards digital assets. 
The firm lodged its application with regulators for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange late on Tuesday, having filed initial paperwork at the start of last year, after a previous attempt fell through in late 2022.  Tuesday’s filing shows Circle’s revenues on the reserves it maintains to back its USDC stablecoin jumped to $1.66bn last year, from $1.4bn in 2023. 


Stablecoin operator Circle files for IPO as revenues jump to $1.7bn

Swiss banks say they have seen a surge of interest and business from high-net-worth Americans opening investment accounts in recent months. Switzerland’s neutral politics, stable economy, strong currency and reliable legal system are all a draw for clients. While opening a Swiss bank account decades ago may have carried a trace of elicit tax evasion, today it’s highly regulated and more widespread, complete with tax forms and reporting.

More rich Americans are opening Swiss bank accounts fearing U.S. risks

China’s producer prices plunged 3.6% in June from a year earlier, marking its largest decline since July 2023. The consumer price index edged 0.1% higher in June from a year ago, beating the estimates for a flat reading. Core CPI, stripping out food and energy prices, rose 0.7% from a year ago.

China’s producer prices fall 3.6% in June, biggest drop in nearly two years as deflation deepens

The new research looks at the UK’s banking sector and how it compares to other G8 countries. It notes that as a result of deregulation reforms, stable interest rates, and divestment of price equity firms as funds near the five-year mark post-pandemic, 2024 could be a pivotal year for UK banking, especially from a job searcher’s point of view. Since 2022, risk and compliance has consistently been the most in-demand area in banking recruitment. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, with 4,559 vacancies representing 15 percent of all sector roles, despite a 20 percent decrease in vacancies. 

Investment Bank Vacancies Soar While Retail Banks Face Decline Reveals Morgan McKinley

In October 2022, shortly after Credit Suisse launched a major business restructuring and the credit-rating agencies announced they were downgrading the Swiss bank’s debt, adding to the turmoil that was engulfing the then 166-year-old financial institution. One of the immediate steps the bank took in response to the waning confidence in it was to accelerate the sale of the bulk of one of its crown jewels, the so-called securitised products group, a large asset-based lending business that created — or “originated”, in financial jargon — products such as mortgages and auto loans and sold them to investors.



The deal that has spurred Apollo’s plan to remake Wall Street

A leading economist contends a recession is now more likely than not due to the Trump administration’s trade wars, and that the U.S. could suffer the biggest “stagflationary” shock in decades. “We may get recession, we may not, but we are going to get inflation either way,” said Adam Posen, a former official at both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, in a speech this week.The influential Posen, now the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, put the odds of recession at 65%.

This top U.S. economist puts the chance of a 'stagflationary' recession at 65%

Coinbase, the leading crypto exchange in the U.S., is reportedly seeking regulatory approval to offer “tokenized equities” on its platform, a move that would put the company in direct competition with retail brokerages like Robinhood and Charles Schwab. Paul Grewal, chief legal officer at Coinbase, told Reuters that the company was seeking the go-ahead from the Security and Exchange Commission for the new product, adding that tokenized equities was a “huge priority.” 

Coinbase is seeking regulatory approval to offer blockchain-based stock trading 

There was nowhere to run this week for investors seeking to escape a market rout that came on like a tidal wave, crashing down Thursday. Tariffs, of course, dominated, and once they were real, as of Wednesday night, the stage was set for a plunge Thursday that’s not been seen in years. Investors fled the digital platforms and the buy now, pay later (BNPL) players — many of them international in scope, and dependent on growth in lending or consumer spending. And within the FinTech IPO Index, which sank more than 11%, not a single name was in the black.

FinTech IPO Index Plunges 11.7% Amid Broad-Based Market Rout

Uncertainty about U.S. policymaking has led to a flight out of the U.S. dollar and Treasurys, with the dollar index weakening more than 9% so far this year, and analysts see more declines. 
The drop in the greenback has led other currencies to appreciate against it, especially safe havens such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc as well as the euro. Currency devaluation is likely to be more of an active consideration across emerging markets, particularly in Asia, said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. “Emerging markets face high inflation, debt, and capital flight risks, making devaluation dangerous,” said Wael Makarem, financial markets strategists lead at Exness.

As the dollar falters, the world’s central banks tread a tightrope — devalue their currency or not

China lashed back at President Trump’s tariffs, applying 34% levies on all imported goods from the U.S. Beijing said the levies would come into effect next Thursday, the day after a big part of Trump’s promised tariffs go live. The market selloff continued Friday, with the China retaliation and recession fears pushing investors to sell stocks and hide in the safety of government bonds.
Markets took little comfort from President Trump's willingness to negotiate over the tariffs. The levies announced late Wednesday were deeper and more aggressive than the business world expected. And even as Trump left the door open to making deals, he vowed new tariffs on drugs and microchips.

Dow Opens Sharply Lower, Bonds Rally After China Retaliates Against Trump Tariffs

A leading economist contends a recession is now more likely than not due to the Trump administration’s trade wars, and that the U.S. could suffer the biggest “stagflationary” shock in decades. “We may get recession, we may not, but we are going to get inflation either way,” said Adam Posen, a former official at both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, in a speech this week. The influential Posen, now the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, put the odds of recession at 65%.

This top U.S. economist puts the chance of a ‘stagflationary’ recession at 65%

BMO Financial Group has signed a deal to buy Burgundy Asset Management Ltd. for $625 million in shares. Burgundy provides discretionary investment management for private clients, foundations, endowments, pensions and family offices. It had about $27 billion in assets under management as of May 31. Under the deal, Burgundy will operate as part of BMO Wealth Management.

BMO to buy Burgundy Asset Management in $625 million all-share deal

Robinhood's tokens offering exposure to OpenAI are not actual equity but are backed by a special purpose vehicle. OpenAI has stated that any transfer of equity requires their approval, which has not been granted. Similar models have faced challenges, as seen with Linqto's bankruptcy, raising concerns about investor protections.

Robinhood Says OpenAI Stock Tokens Backed by Special Purpose Vehicle

Bitcoin  extended gains Monday to hit a new milestone, breaking past $120,000, fueled by a rally in the cryptocurrency’s ETFs. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization traded at $121,921 at 6:20 a.m. ET, according to data from Coin Metrics. Earlier in the session, it topped $122,000. The rally has seen bitcoin reach new highs amid more inflows into bitcoin ETFs. On Thursday, bitcoin ETFs had logged their biggest day of inflows in 2025 at $1.18 billion.

Bitcoin surpasses $120,000 to record highs ahead of U.S. lawmakers’ ‘Crypto Week’

JPMorgan believes the US economy will enter a recession in the back half of 2025 as the impact of President Trump tariffs takes hold in the economy. The firm's chief US economist Michael Feroli sees a two-quarter recession occurring in the back half of 2025 as GDP contracts by 1% in the third quarter of the year and by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2025, Feroli's team projects GDP will fall by 0.3%. "We now expect real GDP [gross domestic product] to contract under the weight of the tariffs," Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday night.

JPMorgan becomes the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession following Trump's tariffs

The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate unchanged in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. The post-meeting statement noted the recent market volatility and how that is factoring into the central bank’s policy decisions. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further,” the statement said.

Fed holds rates steady as it notes rising uncertainty and stagflation risk

Backed by an army of retail investors, the 38-year-old CEO is shaking up the financial order.
Vlad Tenev has a message for Wall Street professionals confounded by the everyday investors who have become a driving force in the stock market and beyond. Sitting in a conference room in midtown Manhattan wearing a short-sleeved shirt and espadrilles, the chief of Robinhood laid out his plan to lead his band of retail traders to new investing frontiers and make them more central to financial markets than ever.

Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev has led a trading revolution to become a new Wall Street power

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts as recent data reveals a concerning trend in the labor market, according to Citi analysts in a note Wednesday. The bank said the percentage of individuals finding "jobs hard to get" is increasing, signaling that the rise in unemployment is not merely a sign of a growing labor supply but an indication of weak hiring conditions.  Citi notes that this trend, observed in the Conference Board survey, is reminiscent of the conditions in September 2001, a period when the U.S. economy was already in recession. This situation suggests that a “hard landing” could be imminent, making further aggressive rate cuts from the Fed more likely, says the bank.

Fed may have to cut aggressively as individuals finding jobs hard to get is rising

U.S. Treasuries, the bedrock of the global financial system, were hit by fresh selling pressure on Wednesday in a sign that investors were dumping their safest assets as turmoil unleashed by U.S. tariffs prompts forced selling and a dash for cash. The dollar, also a traditional safe haven, weakened against other major currencies in further evidence that confidence in the world's biggest economy has been shaken.

Global bond rout starting to sound market alarm bells

Gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, largely pushed by a surge in imports ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Imports soared 41.3%, driven by a 50.9% increase in goods. Imports subtract from GDP, so the contraction in growth may not be viewed as negatively given the potential for the trend to reverse. The report provided cross signals for the Fed. While the negative growth number might push the central bank to consider lowering interest rates, inflation readings could give policymakers pause.

U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

There was plenty of enthusiasm for the fundraising and dealmaking outlook at this year’s SuperReturn conference of private equity professionals, but also an acknowledgment that the IPO market has stalled — in large part due to U.S. volatility. A slowdown in exits has left investors in PE funds unable to realize returns and potentially looking for alternatives. “A lot of PE firms just paid too much” during the era of ultra-low interest rates, one attendee noted, but added that “at some point that has to pass.”

Peak private equity? Sector gets defensive about its ability to generate top returns

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.25% as expected on Thursday but said it was focused on risks from a weaker labour market and higher energy prices as conflict in the Middle East escalates. Noting the elevated global uncertainty and persistent inflation, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joining Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor to vote for a quarter-point reduction.

Bank of England keeps rates steady, sees further loosening as jobs market weakens

Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on Friday due to concerns about the nation's growing, $36 trillion debt pile, in a move that could complicate President Donald Trump's efforts to cut taxes and send ripples through global markets. Moody's first gave the United States its pristine "Aaa" rating in 1919 and is the last of the three major credit agencies to downgrade it. Friday's cut by one notch to "Aa1" follows a change in 2023 in the agency's outlook on the sovereign due to wider fiscal deficits and higher interest payments.

Moody's cuts America's pristine credit rating, citing rising debt

Berlin-based payment software FinTech Payrails has raised $32 million in new funding.
The company’s Series A round, announced Thursday (June 12), will help the company speed product innovation and expand across Europe, the Middle East and Africa to meet growing demand from larger enterprises. Payrails says it addresses this with a payment operating system specifically designed for enterprises, allowing companies to orchestrate complex payment flows, boost performance, and “abstract the complexity of system integrations.”


Payrails Raises $32 Million to Streamline Enterprise Payments

The Federal Reserve proposed easing a key capital rule for banks, and central bank officials opened the matter for public comment Wednesday. The enhanced supplementary leverage ratio regulates the quality and quantity of capital banks should keep on their balance sheets. In recent years as bank reserves have grown, Wall Street executives and Fed officials have sought to roll back the requirements.

Divided Fed proposes rule to ease capital requirements for big Wall Street banks

Tom Lee has been appointed chairman of the board of directors of bitcoin miner BitMine Immersion Technologies, effective Monday. BitMine announced a $250 million private placement to implement a buying strategy around ether, which it aims to make its primary treasury reserve asset. Lee’s appointment comes amid a groundswell of interest from traditional financial institutions around stablecoins, many of which run on the Ethereum network.

Wall Street strategist Tom Lee is aiming to create the MicroStrategy of Ethereum

The Bank of Korea noted a “significant acceleration in housing prices in Seoul.” The central bank is, however, expected to cut rates in its next policy meeting as measures to cool the housing market in Seoul take effect. Household debt in South Korea plays a huge part in the central bank’s monetary policy considerations, due to the country’s unique rental system.

Bank of Korea keeps rates steady as it assesses measures to cool Seoul’s housing market

For two long years private companies have spurned public markets, as rising interest rates dashed lofty valuations and stock prices vacillated. All this has been bad news for Wall Street. In 2021 America’s five largest investment banks together earned an average of $13bn per quarter through their dealmaking and initial-public-offering (IPO) desks. Over the next two years they managed barely half of that.

Wall Street is praying firms will start going public again

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey joins a growing list of European officials concerned with the rise of stablecoins. Stablecoins introduce systemic risks to banking institutions that could destabilize the entire financial system, causing sovereign governments to lose control over their currencies, the BOE official told The Sunday Times in an interview.  He also added that the United Kingdom’s central bank should not adopt a central bank digital currency (CBDC) or otherwise seek to launch a centrally-managed digital fiat token.

Bank of England governor warns against private stablecoin issuance

JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday topped analysts’ estimates on better-than-expected revenue from fixed income trading and investment banking. Here’s what the company reported:
- Earnings: $5.24 a share, may not compare with $4.48 a share LSEG estimate
- Revenue: $45.68 billion vs $44.06 billion estimate
The bank said that second-quarter earnings fell 17% to $14.9 billion, or $5.24 a share, from the year-earlier period, when it had a $7.9 billion gain on Visa shares. Even when backing out a $774 million income tax benefit that boosted per share earnings by 28 cents, JPMorgan topped estimates for the quarter.

JPMorgan Chase tops estimates on stronger-than-expected trading, investment banking

Calpers is expanding its private equity portfolio following its strongest fiscal year since 2021, reporting an 11.6% return and reaching $556.2bn in total assets under management, according to a report by the Financial Times. The US’s largest public pension fund has increased its target allocation to private equity from 13% to 17%, with the asset class now accounting for nearly 18% of its portfolio. Private equity returned 14.3% for the year, up from 10.9% in the prior period, and rebounding from a loss the year before. 

Calpers deepens private equity exposure after strong $556.2bn performance year

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday posted results that topped expectations as its trading operations generated $840 million more revenue than analysts had expected. Here’s what the company reported:

-Earnings: $10.91 a share vs. $9.53 a share LSEG estimate
-Revenue: $14.58 billion vs. $13.47 billion

The bank said that second quarter profit jumped 22% from a year earlier to $3.72 billion, or $10.91 per share. Revenue climbed 15% to $14.58 billion, roughly $1.1 billion more than the estimate.

Goldman Sachs tops estimates as traders generate $840 million more revenue than expected

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