Saudia Arabia No Longer Exclusively Selling Oil in US Dollars

Implications of the Expiration of the Petrodollar Agreement

The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

Futility Index

Norges Bank is the central bank of Norway and was established in 1816. Norges Bank's mission is to promote economic stability and management assets on behalf of the people of Norway. Norges Bank provides oversight of the monetary policy, payment systems, and financial markets.  In addition, Norges Bank manages the foreign exchange and the substantial asset of the Government Pension Fund Global.

Norway

Europe

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Norges Bank Reviews 2024 | BankerAdvisor

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Despite central bank gold buying slowing moderately in the second quarter, it set a record through the first half of 2024. Central banks globally added a net 483 tons of gold through the first six months of the year,  5 percent above the record of 460 tons in H1 2023.In the second quarter, central bank gold demand totaled 183 tons, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council. That was up 6 percent year-on-year, but about 39 percent lower than the Q1 buying pace.  

Central Bank Gold Buying Through First Half of 2024 Sets Record

Treasury yields moved higher Tuesday following a poor auction on the five-year note and as investors await fresh data releases on inflation. Yields perked up after a $70 billion Treasury Department auction of 5-year notes was met with weak demand. The bid-to-cover ratio, a widely followed demand gauge, came in at 2.3, below a 10-auction average of 2.45. Investors are hungry for more data on the economic and inflationary picture after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, released last week, showed uncertainty among policymakers about when to ease policy. On Friday, they will parse the April personal income and expenditures report, which includes a measurement of price movements across a range of consumer expenses.

10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5% following weak auction

China's central bank said on Thursday it would start accepting applications from financial institutions to join a newly created funding scheme, initially worth 500 billion yuan ($70.62 billion), to aid the capital market. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said eligible securities firms, fund companies and insurers can apply to join the swap scheme, which gives them easier access to funding to buy stocks.

China kicks off 500 bln yuan swap facility to aid stock market

Launched in July 2023, the Federal Reserve's FedNow service has been a game-changer in the U.S. payments landscape. With over 900 financial institutions onboarded, including major players like Chase and Wells Fargo, FedNow is reshaping the future of payments in the U.S. FedNow represents a significant shift from the traditional Automated Clearing House (ACH) system to real-time payments, ensuring transactions are processed instantly, 24/7/365. ACH, while effective, typically requires one to two business days for transaction completion. In contrast, FedNow processes payments in seconds, offering a faster and more efficient alternative that aligns the U.S. with global payment standards. 

One Year Since the FedNow Launch: What You Should Know

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key interest rate to 3.25%, in its third quarter-percentage-point reduction of the year. The move had been fully priced by markets after policymakers flagged reduced inflation risks and a weakening growth outlook.  It is the first time the ECB has reduced rates at consecutive meetings since December 2011.

European Central Bank lowers key rate to 3.25% in third cut this year: Live updates

In a significant move to counteract international sanctions and reduce dependency on the global financial system Swift, Russia has called on BRICS nations to establish a new cross-border payments network, reported Bloomberg. This initiative is aimed at facilitating transactions in local currencies and strengthening economic ties within the bloc. The proposed network would involve a consortium of commercial banks capable of executing transactions in the respective local currencies of BRICS countries. It also suggests the establishment of direct connections between central banks to further insulate the group from external financial systems.

Russia proposes Swift alternative for cross-border payments

 Inflation in the euro area rose from 1.7% to 2% in October, flash figures showed Thursday, coming in slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast. Core inflation and services inflation were both unchanged on the previous month. Markets currently expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, with one analyst saying the latest data would end debate over whether a larger 50-basis-point cut is warranted.

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

The U.S. government is on track to spend more than $1 trillion on interest payments this year, surpassing military spending for the first time in history. Interest payments on the national debt (held by the public in the form of Treasury securities) will cost the government $1.2 trillion in the government's fiscal year ending in October, the Treasury Department said in a monthly report on the budget. Interest payments are driven by a combination of deficit spending, especially during the pandemic, and the Federal Reserve's campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes.



A Record $1.2 Trillion Interest Payments Are Blowing Up The Federal Budget

A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. Fed officials head into their two-day policy meeting Tuesday closer to their goal of low inflation, but how much they will ease interest rates remains an open question.  “The federal funds rate has been over 5%, has been there for over a year to fight inflation. That fight is won. They need to start getting out of the way,” economist Claudia Sahm said.

The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts as recent data reveals a concerning trend in the labor market, according to Citi analysts in a note Wednesday. The bank said the percentage of individuals finding "jobs hard to get" is increasing, signaling that the rise in unemployment is not merely a sign of a growing labor supply but an indication of weak hiring conditions.  Citi notes that this trend, observed in the Conference Board survey, is reminiscent of the conditions in September 2001, a period when the U.S. economy was already in recession. This situation suggests that a “hard landing” could be imminent, making further aggressive rate cuts from the Fed more likely, says the bank.

Fed may have to cut aggressively as individuals finding jobs hard to get is rising

Moody's on Friday lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to "negative" from "stable" citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability, a move that drew immediate criticism from President Joe Biden's administration. The move follows a rating downgrade of the sovereign by another ratings agency, Fitch, this year, which came after months of political brinkmanship around the U.S. debt ceiling.

Moody's turns negative on US credit rating, draws Washington ire

Norway's central bank surprised markets by raising its key policy rate Thursday, saying that a final hike in the current cycle was needed to ensure that inflation doesn't remain too high for an extended period. Norges Bank increased its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, versus a Dow Jones poll before the decision that had pointed to an unchanged rate of 4.25%.

Norway Central Bank Surprises With Quarter-Percentage Point Rate Hike to 4.5%

Europe’s central bankers may be privately cursing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for the dovish press conference he delivered on Wednesday. “Who wants to hang on for too long,” asked an ailing European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at the central bank’s post-decision press conference on Thursday, in response to the third question she received about Powell’s tone. But Lagarde said over and over that the ECB wasn’t about to “lower our guard” and claimed the governing council did not even discuss rate cuts.

ECB’s Lagarde, Bank of England’s Bailey fight back against rate-cut talk

The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Chatter has spilled into government and finance heavyweights, and has one prominent Wall Street firm wondering if costs associated with the debt pose a risk to the stock market rally. The CBO estimates that debt held by the public compared to GDP will rise to “an amount greater than at any point in the nation’s history.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recently that “this is something that elected people need to get their arms around sooner rather than later.”

Soaring debt and deficits causing worry about threats to the economy and markets

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023 caused plenty of finger-pointing at bank regulators. Many US financial institutions including SVB and First Republic were covering large portions of their liabilities with assets such as government bonds that stood to lose value if interest rates rose significantly—which is exactly what happened. As the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, rumors swirled that the two banks might not have sufficient assets to cover all their deposits. Customers yanked their money out, causing runs at both.

US Bank Regulators Could Have Averted $9 Billion in Losses

“Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” the summary stated. The minutes also showed “various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.” The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024.

Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflation

After months of business leaders and economists urging action, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)—the central bank of the world’s second biggest economy—finally acquiesced, unleashing a triptych stimulus package aimed at spurring consumer spending to counter persistent deflation. Yet analysts doubt even this “policy bazooka” will have much of an effect. 
On Tuesday, the PBoC unveiled a policy interest rate cut of 0.2 percentage points, combined with a lowering of banks’ reserve requirements and the cutting of existing mortgage interest rates, both by 0.5 percentage points. For the PBoC to unveil three rate cuts at once is itself unprecedented. 

China’s Bold Stimulus Measures Won’t Save Its Flagging Economy

Monetary policy in advanced countries is diverging in a manner that was thought highly unlikely just a few months ago.  A major question facing many central banks around the world is no longer whether interest rate policies in advanced countries will decouple in a manner that was thought highly unlikely just a few months ago. They already have and will do so even more.  The question is the scope and size of the potential divergence, and the implications for reconciling domestic economic priorities with the avoidance of harmful exchange rate volatility.


Europe May Soon Discover the Limits of Decoupling on Rates

The Bank of Canada cut on Wednesday its main interest rate by a quarter-percentage point, becoming the first Group of Seven central bank to provide rate relief after a rapid and aggressive increase in borrowing costs to tame inflation. Canada's central bank said a cut was warranted because of increased confidence that inflation is moving closer to its 2% target. Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said more rate cuts could be in the offing should inflation show further signs of slowing. The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate to 4.75% from 5%, where it sat for 11 months. 

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate to 4.75%, Signals More Easing Possible

The European Central Bank cut its policy rates by 25 basis points, as expected, on Thursday, its first cut in almost five years amid signs that price pressures have weakened. "Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady," the ECB's Governing Council said in a statement. The ECB is the third major central bank to lower its key policy rates, following the Swiss National Bank's move last month and the Bank of Canada's cut on Wednesday.

ECB cuts key interest rates by 25 bps even as outlook on inflation revised up

China’s central bank took new steps to shore up the country’s sputtering economy, highlighting officials’ growing anxiety about growth only days after leader Xi Jinping set out his long-term vision to transform China into a technological powerhouse to rival the U.S. The People’s Bank of China said Thursday that it cut a key interest rate and pumped the equivalent of more than $25 billion into China’s banking system. The move caught investors by surprise, as it occurred outside the usual sequence for policy shifts in the PBOC’s complex collection of interest rates and other tools.

As Growth Sputters, Beijing Tries Again to Jolt China’s Economy

The IMF’s second-in-command has urged the US to shrink its mounting fiscal burden, saying strong growth in the world’s largest economy gave it “ample” room to rein in spending and raise taxes. Gita Gopinath, the fund’s first deputy managing director, said it was time for advanced economies to “invest in fiscal consolidation” and address how they plan to bring debt burdens back down to pre-pandemic levels. “For the US, we see ample ground for them to reduce the size of their fiscal deficits, also given the strength of the US economy,” she told the Financial Times in an interview. The warnings come as economists and investors fear that years of fiscal profligacy by both Democrats and Republicans are storing up trouble for the US economy.


IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden

China's yuan is in the midst of a steep decline as holders of the currency eye the risk of US sanctions. The value of the yuan slumped against Russia's ruble for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday, falling to a level of 11.51 rubles. That's the cheapest the yuan has been in about a year.  Central banks, meanwhile, are looking to dump the yuan while raising their holdings of the US dollar. Nearly 20% of central bank reserve managers said they planned on raising dollar holdings over the next one to two years, while 12% said they planned on reducing yuan holdings, according to a survey from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

China's yuan is tumbling amid US sanctions and as central banks boost dollar holdings

The Bank of England joined the growing list of policymakers and market participants concerned about the booming $1.6-trillion private credit market. The central bank’s Financial Policy Committee on Wednesday highlighted riskier types of corporate borrowing such as private credit and leveraged lending as particularly vulnerable to “sharp revaluations” in credit markets, as higher interest rates could make it harder for companies to refinance debt.

Bank of England Issues Warning on Private Debt, Leveraged Loans

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