Bank stocks are often perceived to be a harbinger of broader economic trends so BankerAdvisor wheeled around some of the big banks’ reported second quarter earnings to spot broad movements

Tea Leaves and Emerging Economic Trends

The Impact of Two Consumer Classes and the Fed Funds Rate Outlook 

A Tale of Two Consumers

Legacy Advisors, LLC is an independent, SEC-registered investment advisor based in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania founded in 2006.  Legacy Advisory, LLC provides investment advisory and financial planning services for clients including individuals, charitable organizations, and corporations and other businesses. 

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ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood expects that a “changing of the guard” at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission may turbocharge the economy and bring about an influx of innovation and investment in emerging technologies.  “Deregulation, defanging the SEC, FTC, and others, government spending cuts, tax cuts, and a focus on technologically enabled innovation are likely to turbocharge the US economy,” she said, in sharing a video posted by ARK Invest on X on Nov. 11. “We have more clarity now in terms of the investment landscape after the election,” 

‘Defanging the SEC’ may turbocharge US economy: Cathie Wood

Treasury yields moved higher Tuesday following a poor auction on the five-year note and as investors await fresh data releases on inflation. Yields perked up after a $70 billion Treasury Department auction of 5-year notes was met with weak demand. The bid-to-cover ratio, a widely followed demand gauge, came in at 2.3, below a 10-auction average of 2.45. Investors are hungry for more data on the economic and inflationary picture after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, released last week, showed uncertainty among policymakers about when to ease policy. On Friday, they will parse the April personal income and expenditures report, which includes a measurement of price movements across a range of consumer expenses.

10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5% following weak auction

China's central bank said on Thursday it would start accepting applications from financial institutions to join a newly created funding scheme, initially worth 500 billion yuan ($70.62 billion), to aid the capital market. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said eligible securities firms, fund companies and insurers can apply to join the swap scheme, which gives them easier access to funding to buy stocks.

China kicks off 500 bln yuan swap facility to aid stock market

The turmoil in global markets this past week is causing private credit funds to question whether they should reconsider the ever-tighter loan margins they’re demanding. Industry stalwarts such as Ares Management Corp. and Blackstone Inc. have been charging less for private credit for most of this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News, as they try to snatch business away from the syndicated loan market. But that strategy may change after recession fears have risen amid a slew of worrying economic reports. 

Private Credit Is Eyeing Bigger Margins on Loans: Credit Weekly

Companies owned by private equity firms are landing in default more frequently than other speculative-grade borrowers, according to a report from Moody’s Ratings. Private equity-backed companies defaulted at a rate of 17% between January 2022 and August of this year, twice the rate of non-private equity-backed companies, Moody’s said in the report released Thursday. Among the 12 largest private equity sponsors — as ranked by Moody’s — the default rate was slightly lower at around 14%.  Platinum Equity had the highest number and share of defaults, out of Moody’s ranking of the 12 largest sponsors, followed by Apollo Global Management and Clearlake Capital Group. 

PE-Backed Firms Suffering Higher Default Rates, Moody’s Says

Guernsey stock exchange now provides a facility for trading shares in privately held companies. A stock exchange based in the Channel Islands is trying to capitalise on a global drought in initial public offerings with the launch of a facility for buying and selling shares in privately held companies. But this reinvention of its role looks likely to attract stiff competition from larger rivals. The International Stock Exchange (TISE) — which has, for years, specialised in providing a listing venue for corporate debt — last year launched a unit allowing private companies to run auctions in their own shares, without the need for a broker.


TISE finds best place to capitalise on private assets

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key interest rate to 3.25%, in its third quarter-percentage-point reduction of the year. The move had been fully priced by markets after policymakers flagged reduced inflation risks and a weakening growth outlook.  It is the first time the ECB has reduced rates at consecutive meetings since December 2011.

European Central Bank lowers key rate to 3.25% in third cut this year: Live updates

Interest rates are coming down, but only after one of the most brutal monetary tightening periods in modern history. And they’re probably coming down too late, too little and too slowly for a lot of smaller companies and the investment funds that chucked money at them over the past few years. Private credit — basically, bilateral corporate loans made by specialist investment funds rather than banks — has been one of the hottest asset classes over the past decade. Possibly the hottest. Depending on who you believe, there’s somewhere between $2tn and $3tn of money in private credit funds.


How is private credit weathering its first big rate hiking cycle?

A Bitcoin-related bill is gaining support in the United States, signaling a potential boost for the cryptocurrency’s value, which could hit $1 million. Former President Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election on Nov. 5 has sparked optimism for more crypto-friendly policies.
One of the most anticipated bills is the Bitcoin Act, championed by Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, which proposes the creation of a strategic Bitcoin BTC tickers down $98,418 reserve for the US, making it the first nation to use it as a “savings technology.”

US Bitcoin reserve during Trump presidency could pump BTC to $1M

A group of private credit lenders led by Blue Owl Capital and Ares Management has agreed to take over troubled software company Pluralsight, wiping out $4bn that Vista Equity Partners and other investors had put into the business since they bought it less than four years ago. The closely watched restructuring is one of the biggest in which the creditors that ultimately take control are also so-called direct lenders. The deal values Pluralsight at about $900mn, far below the more than $5bn that Vista, its partners and private lenders had invested or lent to the business. Vista and its co-investors had sunk roughly $4bn into Pluralsight, while lenders provided it with about $1.7bn of debt financing.


Vista and co-investors lose $4bn in Pluralsight restructuring

Blackstone (BX.N), beat Wall Street's expectations on its key quarterly earnings metric on Thursday, as the world's largest alternative investment firm's assets under management (AUM) hit a record $1.1 trillion and the value of its funds rose. New York-based Blackstone said it saw $41 billion of inflows during the third quarter, while it deployed and committed $54 billion of capital - the highest in over two years - amid a revival in dealmaking activity as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates and the economic outlook remained sanguine. Over the past few quarters, high interest rates had been a drag on some aspects of Blackstone's business. With the Fed now entering into an easing cycle, the firm saw that weight starting to lift.

Blackstone tops profit estimate as its assets hit record, dealmaking picks up

State Street Global Advisors, the asset management business of State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), announced today that it is working with Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE: APO), a leading provider of alternative assets and retirement solutions, and its affiliates (collectively, Apollo), to expand investor access to private market opportunities. "Private assets are one of the fastest growing sectors of the financial industry. We are excited to be working with Apollo, a global leader in alternative assets, to continue to increase accessibility to private markets, opening them to an even larger cross section of investors," said Ron O’Hanley, president and chief executive officer of State Street. 

State Street Global Advisors and Apollo Global Management Join Forces to Increase and Broaden Investor Access to Private Markets

BlackRock has a handshake deal to buy private credit group HPS Investment Partners, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. The final deal value would be closer to $12 billion, which offers a significant premium over HPS's post-IPO valuation of $10 billion, the report said, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The two sides have agreed on the broad outline of the deal with an eye towards announcing general terms after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the report added, citing four people familiar with the matter.

BlackRock has deal to buy private credit manager HPS, FT reports

The ultra-rich run family offices, hire wealth managers and hold stakes in private investment funds. For those who are well-off but hardly jetsetters, however, portfolios look much more mundane. Typically, their largest asset is their home. Other holdings might include a 401(k), a few stocks, a bank account and a car. There’s nothing terrible about this sort of asset assortment. But, given that over the years we’ve seen a persistent pattern of the ultra-wealthy getting wealthier, it’s reasonable to think the bottom 99.9% might also benefit from the tools and investment vehicles the rich have at their disposal. 

Wealth Management Startups See Funding Rise

Recent and upcoming rate cuts will provide relief for private credit borrowers through lower funding costs in 2025, even as many have already benefitted from repricing and improving financing conditions. 

How This Will Shape 2025 
Repricing will continue to change market dynamics. Companies should see a bigger benefit from rate cuts in 2025 than this year. Competition and convergence between public and private markets will continue. With growth and innovations in private markets, some borrowers have the luxury of choice between broadly syndicated or private credit. 

Private Markets: How Will Private Credit Respond To Declining Yields?

 Inflation in the euro area rose from 1.7% to 2% in October, flash figures showed Thursday, coming in slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast. Core inflation and services inflation were both unchanged on the previous month. Markets currently expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December, with one analyst saying the latest data would end debate over whether a larger 50-basis-point cut is warranted.

Euro zone inflation rises to higher-than-expected 2%, weakening case for jumbo rate cut

A week’s worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. Fed officials head into their two-day policy meeting Tuesday closer to their goal of low inflation, but how much they will ease interest rates remains an open question.  “The federal funds rate has been over 5%, has been there for over a year to fight inflation. That fight is won. They need to start getting out of the way,” economist Claudia Sahm said.

The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air

The majority of public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds (58%) expect to increase their infrastructure allocations over the next 12 to 24 months, according to the OMFIF’s Global Public Funds 2024 report. The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum is a forum for central banking, economic policy and public investment. Twenty-eight global public funds with a combined $6.5 trillion in assets. This is up from 53% that had the same expectation in last year’s survey and 42% in 2022. 

Most global public funds plan to increase infrastructure allocations — OMFIF report

The National Center for Public Policy Research — a Washington DC-based think tank championing free markets — submitted a shareholder proposal to Amazon saying that a Bitcoin corporate treasury strategy should be considered at the April 2025 shareholder meeting.
According to the proposal, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used to measure inflation, which currently puts inflation at 4.95%, is a “remarkably poor measure” of true currency debasement. The authors suggested the true inflation rate may be double the reported CPI figure. This greatly erodes Amazon’s $88 billion in cash and short-term cash equivalents, the letter said, and to protect shareholder value, Bitcoin should be used to hedge against this risk. 

National Center for Public Policy Research proposes BTC treasury to Amazon

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) announced it is enabling its U.S. merchants to buy, hold and sell cryptocurrency directly from their PayPal business account.  At launch, this functionality for Business Accounts will not be available in New York State. Today's announcement is PayPal's latest step to increase cryptocurrency's utility by making increased functionality available to millions of merchants in the U.S. 

PayPal lets US business accounts buy and sell crypto

The U.S. budget deficit swelled in November, putting fiscal 2025 already at a much faster pace than a year ago when the shortfall topped $1.8 trillion, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. For the month, the deficit totaled $366.8 billion, 17% higher than November 2023 and taking the total for the first two months of the fiscal year more than 64% higher than the same period a year ago on an unadjusted basis. The increase came despite receipts that totaled $301.8 billion, about $27 billion more than last November. Outlays totaled $668.5 billion, or nearly $80 billion more from a year ago. The increase in red ink brought the national debt to $36.1 trillion as the month drew to a close.

Budget deficit swells in November, pushing fiscal 2025 shortfall 64% higher than a year ago

BlackRock is set to acquire full control of London-based private debt manager Kreos Capital, which the investment giant said will accelerate the growth of its credit platform. The acquisition of the firm, which specialises in growth and venture debt lending strategies, "unlocks additional private debt capabilities" for BlackRock's clients to access a larger proportion of the risk/return spectrum, the company said. Kreos Capital has committed over €5.2bn across more than 750 transactions in 19 countries since its inception in 1998. It has provided financing to more than 550 pan-European and Israeli high-growth companies in the technology and healthcare sectors. 

BlackRock acquires private debt manager Kreos Capital in credit platform boost

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finds himself in a difficult place that no central banker wants to be: working to avert a credit crunch, which calls for looser monetary policy, while fighting high inflation, which demands the opposite. Strains in the banking industry, which followed the collapse of three midsize lenders this spring, help explain why some central bank officials are leaning toward holding interest rates steady at their meeting this week—even though the economy and inflation haven’t slowed as much as they expected.
But current and former central bankers say if stresses worsen, the Fed will face a more difficult trade off. Powell and his colleagues would have to choose between focusing on failing banks or high inflation.

Jerome Powell’s Big Problem Just Got Even More Complicated

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts as recent data reveals a concerning trend in the labor market, according to Citi analysts in a note Wednesday. The bank said the percentage of individuals finding "jobs hard to get" is increasing, signaling that the rise in unemployment is not merely a sign of a growing labor supply but an indication of weak hiring conditions.  Citi notes that this trend, observed in the Conference Board survey, is reminiscent of the conditions in September 2001, a period when the U.S. economy was already in recession. This situation suggests that a “hard landing” could be imminent, making further aggressive rate cuts from the Fed more likely, says the bank.

Fed may have to cut aggressively as individuals finding jobs hard to get is rising

A recent article was quoted as saying "that Wall Street is coming for crypto, whether early believers like it or not." Something has changed, and maybe the biggest change is that treasury managers want to use cryptocurrencies. If the customer wants it, then the big banks have to service it and there’s the rub. The big banks have stirred and incorporated digital assets, and specifically cryptocurrencies, into their remit. And then you know that cryptocurrencies are going mainstream when Standard and Poor’s (S&P) start to rate them. They don’t do that today, but they are moving that way. 

The moment you realise crypto has gone mainstream

JPMorgan Chase executives warned that tougher regulations in the wake of bank failures this year would raise costs for consumers and businesses.  JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that other financial players could end up winners. “This is great news for hedge funds, private equity, private credit, Apollo, Blackstone,” Dimon said, naming two of the largest private equity players. “They’re dancing in the streets.”

Dimon says private equity giants are ‘dancing in the streets’ over tougher bank rules

Guggenheim Investments, the asset-management arm of Guggenheim Partners, is seeking to raise at least $1.5 billion for its newest private credit fund, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Guggenheim Targets $1.5 Billion for New Private Credit Fund

A group of investors led by Boaz Weinstein and other prominent hedge-fund managers has made an improved bid to buy Sculptor Capital Management Inc., which has already agreed to be bought by Rithm Capital Corp., the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. In July, Sculptor said it had agreed to be acquired by Rithm Capital for $11.15 a share in a deal valued at about $639 million, a premium of 18% for the stock price at the time. Weinstein manages Saba Capital Management, and his group reportedly includes Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, and Marc Lasry, chief executive of Avenue Capital Group. 

Group of hedge-fund titans makes renewed bid to buy Sculptor Capital: report 

Goldman Sachs  said Monday that it agreed to sell its personal financial management unit to a competitor named Creative Planning. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year and “result in a gain” for New York-based Goldman. The bank declined to disclose the sale price for its PFM business. Goldman acquired a team of about 220 financial advisors managing $25 billion in assets in May 2019, when it announced the $750 million acquisition of United Capital Financial Partners. 

Goldman Sachs unloads another business acquired under CEO David Solomon

Close to a third of all publicly-held, outstanding U.S. government debt is set to mature in the next 12 months, raising questions about where Treasury might go from there to finance the government’s borrowing needs. A total of $7.6 trillion will mature in the next year, approaching the level seen in early 2021. Concerns about Treasury’s increased issuance of T-bills and the potential for volatility or market disruptions emerged following the debt-ceiling fight in May, when angst over the government’s ability to pay all its bills pushed yields above 7% on debt maturing in early June. 

$7.6 trillion of publicly held U.S. government debt matures in next 12 months. What does the Treasury do next? 

Marathon Asset Management, a leading global credit investment manager, today announced the final close for the third vintage of a closed-end asset-based lending fund with $1.7 billion of capital commitments.  As traditional lenders have downsized their lending programs, Marathon’s ABL strategy is designed to pursue compelling returns for clients by creating a diversified portfolio through sourcing, underwriting, and structuring attractive private investments that exhibit principal protection, robust asset coverage and predictable cashflows. , Marathon also intends to capitalize on the secondary loan market opportunities, as select undercapitalized financial institutions seek to improve their financial condition through asset sales.

Marathon Asset Management Closes $1.7 Billion Asset-Based Lending Fund

U.S. Federal Reserve officials and some investors are increasingly focused on something that can’t be easily explained by the economy or monetary-policy expectations as a likely driver for the relentless selling of government bonds that has brought long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels in more than 16 years. The so-called term premium of Treasurys, or the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk of holding longer-dated bonds, has taken center stage as some Fed officials started to think a rising term premium has driven much of the recent surge in 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields since late September. 

Fed says bond market’s term premium is the reason behind rise in Treasury yields. Why investors should take it with a dose of caution. 

The U.S. financial services division of Chinese bank ICBC was hit by a cyberattack that reportedly affected the trade of U.S. Treasurys. ICBC, the world’s largest lender by assets, said Thursday its financial services arm experienced a ransomware attack “that resulted in disruption to certain” systems. Security expert have said ransomware from the hacking group LockBit was used to carry out the cyberattack on ICBC. 

China’s ICBC, the world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberattack that reportedly disrupted Treasury markets

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is reportedly planning a major expansion of its private credit portfolio. The Wall Street giant aims to grow that portfolio to $300 billion in five years, up from $130 billion, a senior executive told Reuters Tuesday (March 12). “It’s a huge opportunity,” said Marc Nachmann, Goldman Sachs’ global head of asset and wealth management. According to the report, Goldman has loftier goals than other banking titans. For example, Morgan Stanley is planning to double its private credit portfolio to $50 billion, while JPMorgan Chase has set aside at least $10 billion for private credit. 

Goldman Sachs Aims for $300 Billion Private Credit Portfolio

The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Chatter has spilled into government and finance heavyweights, and has one prominent Wall Street firm wondering if costs associated with the debt pose a risk to the stock market rally. The CBO estimates that debt held by the public compared to GDP will rise to “an amount greater than at any point in the nation’s history.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recently that “this is something that elected people need to get their arms around sooner rather than later.”

Soaring debt and deficits causing worry about threats to the economy and markets

Michael Sonnenshein has stepped down from his role as the CEO of Grayscale Investments LLC. Sonnenshein will be replaced by former Goldman Sachs executive Peter Mintzberg as of Aug. 15. Until then, Grayscale’s chief financial officer, Edward McGee, will lead the firm in the interim as the principal executive officer.

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein steps down

After months of business leaders and economists urging action, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)—the central bank of the world’s second biggest economy—finally acquiesced, unleashing a triptych stimulus package aimed at spurring consumer spending to counter persistent deflation. Yet analysts doubt even this “policy bazooka” will have much of an effect. 
On Tuesday, the PBoC unveiled a policy interest rate cut of 0.2 percentage points, combined with a lowering of banks’ reserve requirements and the cutting of existing mortgage interest rates, both by 0.5 percentage points. For the PBoC to unveil three rate cuts at once is itself unprecedented. 

China’s Bold Stimulus Measures Won’t Save Its Flagging Economy

Blue Owl has earned a high public market valuation. And the private capital upstart is showing that it is not afraid to use it. So far the manager has announced $1.4bn worth of deals this year, across three acquisitions. This month, in its latest transaction, it acquired the credit manager Atalaya Capital Management, for $450mn.  

Blue Owl is bidding hard for the private capital big leagues

Private investment group Sixth Street will pump $4bn into a vehicle to buy loans from US fintech Affirm in a deal that will give the lender firepower to make billions of dollars in additional consumer loans.The pact, which is expected to give Affirm the ability to make $20bn in new loans in the next three years, is the latest tie-up between a private credit fund and consumer credit provider, as the industry taps new avenues to lend to Americans struggling from years of high inflation.The structures allow companies such as Affirm and Sweden-based Klarna — which specialise in “buy now, pay later” loans — to offload debt they have underwritten from their balance sheets, shifting the risks to investors. 


Sixth Street pact hands Affirm firepower for $20bn in new consumer loans

Norinchukin Bank will consider investing in a range of assets as it braces for massive losses on the sale of roughly 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) in US and European sovereign bonds. Japan’s biggest agricultural bank will dispose of the foreign bonds gradually during the fiscal year ending March, a company spokesman said in an email. It expects a net loss of 1.5 trillion yen for the year, triple the previous estimate of 500 billion yen. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norinchukin-eyes-assets-including-clos-014942422.html

The Bank of England joined the growing list of policymakers and market participants concerned about the booming $1.6-trillion private credit market. The central bank’s Financial Policy Committee on Wednesday highlighted riskier types of corporate borrowing such as private credit and leveraged lending as particularly vulnerable to “sharp revaluations” in credit markets, as higher interest rates could make it harder for companies to refinance debt.

Bank of England Issues Warning on Private Debt, Leveraged Loans

Sports investment group Arctos Partners is in advanced talks to buy a majority stake in European credit investment shop Hayfin Capital Management in tandem with its top executives, according to people with knowledge of the matter.  Arctos has partnered with top Hayfin executives, including co-founders Tim Flynn and Mark Tognolini, in the deal, which is expected to hand a majority of the common stock owned by the British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI) to the management team when it is completed. 


European credit group Hayfin Capital nears buyout deal

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