Bank stocks are often perceived to be a harbinger of broader economic trends so BankerAdvisor wheeled around some of the big banks’ reported second quarter earnings to spot broad movements

Tea Leaves and Emerging Economic Trends

Legacy Advisors, LLC is an independent, SEC-registered investment advisor based in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania founded in 2006.  Legacy Advisory, LLC provides investment advisory and financial planning services for clients including individuals, charitable organizations, and corporations and other businesses. 

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Almost one-third of startups bought by SPACs in 2021 anticipate slower revenue growth with the SEC questioning of revenue projections and warned that it could require some SPACs to restate their financial results. 

SPACs: End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End?

Fewer IPOs, a down market and the specter of recession don’t necessarily equal fewer mergers according to M&A research reports, easy access to low interest capital and a recovering post-pandemic global economy would help deal makers.

Have M&A Trends Flipped for 2022?

TD Bank Group  and Cowen Inc. today announced a definitive agreement for TD to acquire Cowen in an all-cash transaction valued at US$1.3 billion.

TD to Expand its U.S. Investment Banking Business and Capabilities with Acquisition of Cowen Inc.

Recent figures compiled by M&A and corporate finance firm Hampleton Partners show a 46 percent increase in fintech deals in the first half of 2022 compared with 2021 and a 70 percent increase compared with the first half of 2019 pre-pandemic deals.  Steady valuation, the availability of capital, and high-growth fintech companies make the fintech M&A market attractive. 

Fintech M&A on the rise as valuations crumble

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were one and two in the rankings in investment banking revenue in 2022 with Bank of America Corp. in third in a year of shrinking business. The top 10 investment banks on Wall Street booked $56.4 billion in revenue in 2022 as of Sept. 14, down nearly 39% from $92 billion in 2021 as of the same date, and about 8% lower than 2020’s tally of $61.3 billion.

JPMorgan and Goldman are still top dogs in investment banking but business shrinks significantly in 2022 

The legendary co-founder of Boston-based investment firm GMO argued in a Tuesday paper, that “the first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete.” While the downturn has wiped the most “extreme froth” off the market, valuations remain well above long-term averages, he said, noting that in the past they have tended to overcorrect, falling below their long-term trend line as fundamentals deteriorate. Grantham estimated the trend line value of the S&P 500 index, adjusted upward for trend line growth and expected inflation, will be around 3,200 by the end of 2023 - roughly a 17% fall for the year.

Jeremy Grantham says ‘easiest leg’ of stock-market bubble burst is over. Here’s what’s next. 

Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse on Wednesday saw its shares fall to a new record low, pressuring the broader market and the rest of the European banking sector days after two lenders collapsed in the U.S.  Credit Suisse shares fell as much as 23%, extending the declines that seen its shares drop 75% over the last 52 weeks. On Tuesday, Credit Suisse said in its annual report that it had material weaknesses in financial controls. Credit Suisse has lost money for five straight quarters, and its wealthy clients in the fourth quarter withdrew about $100 billion from the bank.

Credit Suisse shares tumble to new record low as European banking sector reels 

eToro recently completed a $250 million funding round at a valuation of $3.5 billion. Investors include ION Group, SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Velvet Sea Ventures, and a number of existing investors. This funding stems from an Advance Investment Agreement (AIA) which eToro entered into in February 2021 as part of its proposed SPAC transaction.

eToro raises $250 million at $3.5 billion valuation

U.S.-based savings and investing startup Acorns has acquired London-based GoHenry, a startup focused on providing money management and financial education services to 6- to18-year-olds in an all-equity deal, the two companies announced today.

Acorns acquires UK’s GoHenry, a fintech focused on 6- to 18-year-olds

BlackRock is set to acquire full control of London-based private debt manager Kreos Capital, which the investment giant said will accelerate the growth of its credit platform. The acquisition of the firm, which specialises in growth and venture debt lending strategies, "unlocks additional private debt capabilities" for BlackRock's clients to access a larger proportion of the risk/return spectrum, the company said. Kreos Capital has committed over €5.2bn across more than 750 transactions in 19 countries since its inception in 1998. It has provided financing to more than 550 pan-European and Israeli high-growth companies in the technology and healthcare sectors. 

BlackRock acquires private debt manager Kreos Capital in credit platform boost

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finds himself in a difficult place that no central banker wants to be: working to avert a credit crunch, which calls for looser monetary policy, while fighting high inflation, which demands the opposite. Strains in the banking industry, which followed the collapse of three midsize lenders this spring, help explain why some central bank officials are leaning toward holding interest rates steady at their meeting this week—even though the economy and inflation haven’t slowed as much as they expected.
But current and former central bankers say if stresses worsen, the Fed will face a more difficult trade off. Powell and his colleagues would have to choose between focusing on failing banks or high inflation.

Jerome Powell’s Big Problem Just Got Even More Complicated

A recent article was quoted as saying "that Wall Street is coming for crypto, whether early believers like it or not." Something has changed, and maybe the biggest change is that treasury managers want to use cryptocurrencies. If the customer wants it, then the big banks have to service it and there’s the rub. The big banks have stirred and incorporated digital assets, and specifically cryptocurrencies, into their remit. And then you know that cryptocurrencies are going mainstream when Standard and Poor’s (S&P) start to rate them. They don’t do that today, but they are moving that way. 

The moment you realise crypto has gone mainstream

JPMorgan Chase executives warned that tougher regulations in the wake of bank failures this year would raise costs for consumers and businesses.  JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that other financial players could end up winners. “This is great news for hedge funds, private equity, private credit, Apollo, Blackstone,” Dimon said, naming two of the largest private equity players. “They’re dancing in the streets.”

Dimon says private equity giants are ‘dancing in the streets’ over tougher bank rules

Guggenheim Investments, the asset-management arm of Guggenheim Partners, is seeking to raise at least $1.5 billion for its newest private credit fund, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Guggenheim Targets $1.5 Billion for New Private Credit Fund

A group of investors led by Boaz Weinstein and other prominent hedge-fund managers has made an improved bid to buy Sculptor Capital Management Inc., which has already agreed to be bought by Rithm Capital Corp., the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. In July, Sculptor said it had agreed to be acquired by Rithm Capital for $11.15 a share in a deal valued at about $639 million, a premium of 18% for the stock price at the time. Weinstein manages Saba Capital Management, and his group reportedly includes Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, and Marc Lasry, chief executive of Avenue Capital Group. 

Group of hedge-fund titans makes renewed bid to buy Sculptor Capital: report 

Goldman Sachs  said Monday that it agreed to sell its personal financial management unit to a competitor named Creative Planning. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year and “result in a gain” for New York-based Goldman. The bank declined to disclose the sale price for its PFM business. Goldman acquired a team of about 220 financial advisors managing $25 billion in assets in May 2019, when it announced the $750 million acquisition of United Capital Financial Partners. 

Goldman Sachs unloads another business acquired under CEO David Solomon

Close to a third of all publicly-held, outstanding U.S. government debt is set to mature in the next 12 months, raising questions about where Treasury might go from there to finance the government’s borrowing needs. A total of $7.6 trillion will mature in the next year, approaching the level seen in early 2021. Concerns about Treasury’s increased issuance of T-bills and the potential for volatility or market disruptions emerged following the debt-ceiling fight in May, when angst over the government’s ability to pay all its bills pushed yields above 7% on debt maturing in early June. 

$7.6 trillion of publicly held U.S. government debt matures in next 12 months. What does the Treasury do next? 

Marathon Asset Management, a leading global credit investment manager, today announced the final close for the third vintage of a closed-end asset-based lending fund with $1.7 billion of capital commitments.  As traditional lenders have downsized their lending programs, Marathon’s ABL strategy is designed to pursue compelling returns for clients by creating a diversified portfolio through sourcing, underwriting, and structuring attractive private investments that exhibit principal protection, robust asset coverage and predictable cashflows. , Marathon also intends to capitalize on the secondary loan market opportunities, as select undercapitalized financial institutions seek to improve their financial condition through asset sales.

Marathon Asset Management Closes $1.7 Billion Asset-Based Lending Fund

U.S. Federal Reserve officials and some investors are increasingly focused on something that can’t be easily explained by the economy or monetary-policy expectations as a likely driver for the relentless selling of government bonds that has brought long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels in more than 16 years. The so-called term premium of Treasurys, or the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk of holding longer-dated bonds, has taken center stage as some Fed officials started to think a rising term premium has driven much of the recent surge in 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields since late September. 

Fed says bond market’s term premium is the reason behind rise in Treasury yields. Why investors should take it with a dose of caution. 

The U.S. financial services division of Chinese bank ICBC was hit by a cyberattack that reportedly affected the trade of U.S. Treasurys. ICBC, the world’s largest lender by assets, said Thursday its financial services arm experienced a ransomware attack “that resulted in disruption to certain” systems. Security expert have said ransomware from the hacking group LockBit was used to carry out the cyberattack on ICBC. 

China’s ICBC, the world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberattack that reportedly disrupted Treasury markets

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is reportedly planning a major expansion of its private credit portfolio. The Wall Street giant aims to grow that portfolio to $300 billion in five years, up from $130 billion, a senior executive told Reuters Tuesday (March 12). “It’s a huge opportunity,” said Marc Nachmann, Goldman Sachs’ global head of asset and wealth management. According to the report, Goldman has loftier goals than other banking titans. For example, Morgan Stanley is planning to double its private credit portfolio to $50 billion, while JPMorgan Chase has set aside at least $10 billion for private credit. 

Goldman Sachs Aims for $300 Billion Private Credit Portfolio

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